ON THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE THEORY 

 OF PROBABILITIES*. 



THE Theory of Probabilities is at once a metaphysical and a 

 mathematical science. The mathematical part of it has been 

 fully developed, while, generally speaking, its metaphysical 

 tendencies have not received much attention. 



This is the more remarkable, as they are in direct opposition 

 to the views of the nature of knowledge, generally adopted at 

 present. 



2. The theory received its present form during the 

 ascendancy of the school of Condillac. It rejects all reference 

 to h priori truths as such, and attempts to establish them as 

 mathematical deductions from the simple notion of probability. 

 Are we prepared to admit, that our confidence in the regularity 

 of nature is merely a corollary from Bernouilli's theorem? 

 That until this theorem was published, mankind could give no 

 account of convictions they had always held, and on which 

 they had always acted? If we are not, what refutation have 

 we to give? For these views are entitled to refutation, from 

 the general reception they have met with, from the authority of 

 the great writers by whom they were propounded, and even 

 from the imposing form of the mathematical demonstration in 

 which they are invested. 



* Transactions of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Yol. vm. [Read 

 Feb. 14, 1842.] 



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