confirms this surmise *. As regards general 

 astronomical speculation on stellar sys- 

 tems and their nature, it gives him a place 

 alongside Huygens, Wright and Kant 2 . 

 Further, in more definite fields, it credits 

 him with initiation of the applicati Dn of 

 mathematical methods, resting on proba- 

 bility and statistics, to the celestial sys- 

 tems. The quantity of material which 

 had then been accumulated was far too 

 small for wide statistical inferences of 

 much certainty ; yet Michell amply 

 demonstrated, for the first time 3 , the 



1 The title of this paper is as follows : " An 

 inquiry into the probable Parallax and Magnitude 

 of the Fixed Stars from the quantity of Light which 

 they afford us, and the particular circumstances of 

 their situation." Phil. Trans, vol. 57 (l 767), p. 234. 

 Herschel's reference to this paper has been referred 

 to ante, p. 95. Later references will be found in 

 Todhunter's History of the Mathematical Theory of 

 Probability (1865), where it is stated that the paper 

 had "attracted considerable attention." MichelFs 

 method of enquiry is there quoted and his results are 

 given (pp. 332, 393, 491). 



8 See R. Grant, History of Physical Astronomy, 



PP- 543, 558, 559- 



3 Grant, op. cit. p. 547. 



9 8 



