No. 4.j THE TOBACCO TRADE. 163 



Ncvv-England-grown Havana or Seed-leaf to do the same ; 

 therefore, Florida leaf at $2 is as cheap as New England leaf 

 at 50 cents. 



I believe the present demand for other wrappers than ours 

 is not to be explained solely in this way, but that the other 

 things which I have mentioned have much to do with the 

 present demand for tobacco of the Sumatra type and the 

 apparent neglect of our domestic types. 



Will these demands of the trade continue indefinitely, or 

 are they only a passing phase ? 



No one of us is a prophet. No trade situation is per- 

 manent. New tobacco-growing regions may develop, or a 

 demand for fine quality in cigars rather than for great num- 

 bers may change the situation. The free-trader may let in 

 Sumatra like a flood. But at present the signs of the times 

 distinctly point to the concentration of the cigar-manufactur- 

 ing business in a comparatively few great concerns, a demand 

 for cheap tobacco, i.e., for leaf which will make good-look- 

 ing cigars with little waste, and a demand for large packings 

 which are perfectly uniform in all respects. A great manu- 

 facturing establishment is demoralized by variations in qual- 

 ity of raw material much more than the small individual 

 manufacturer. 



It would seem, then, that our New England tobacco in- 

 dustry is likely to change, and to go in one of three direc- 

 tions : — 



Either it will produce a leaf of superior excellence for 

 wrapping the best Cuban filler, to meet the demands of a 

 somewhat select cigar trade ; or it will become, as Wisconsin 

 has largely become, a grower of binders, bringing much 

 lower prices than we get at present ; or, lastl}^ it will more 

 nearly meet the present requirements of the cigar trade, and 

 thus maintain itself against all comers. 



This, you will say, — and I admit, — is prophecy, and 

 prophecy is uncertain. I am venturing only a personal 

 opinion, not unsupported, I believe, by the judgment of 

 some who have a better chance than I to know the course of 

 the tobacco trade. Whether I am right or not in my proph- 

 ecy, I feel quite certain that I am right in my statement of 



