AMERICAN MEN OF SCIENCE 



581 



the population. There has certainly been no 

 increase in the number of scientific men of 

 standing commensurate with the increase in 

 the instructors, students and endowments of 

 our universities, with the larger appropriations 

 for scientific work under the government, or 

 with the new foundations for research. 



improve their positions, while the older men 

 are likely to fall back. The nine men now 

 under thirty-five have, on the average, gained 

 364 places and the 77 now between thirty-five 

 and thirty-nine have, on the average, gained 

 144 places. Of those under forty, 54 gained 

 and 32 lost. In the next five-year period men 



TABLE V. GAINS AND LOSSES IN BEFKBENCE TO POSITION AND TO AGE 



Table V. gives the gains and losses of the 

 thousand scientific men of the list of 1903 

 (apart from the 68 who died or removed from 

 the country) in reference to their standing 

 and their present ages. It thus appears that 

 in each hundred of the thousand the men were 

 more likely to lose in position than to gain, 

 but that those in the first hundred lost the 

 least and those in the upper hundreds lost less 

 than the average. Of those in the first hun- 

 dred 44 gained in position and 46 lost, the 

 average loss being 53 places. They were not 

 subject to the competition of an increasing 

 population, and only seven men not on the list 

 of 1903 attained places among the second 

 hundred. It thus appears that even men of 

 established reputation do not maintain their 

 positions, they do not advance as they grow 

 older, and death removes more eminent men 

 whose places they might fill. The losses tend 

 to increase as the men are of lower rank, but 

 the differences are not considerable. The 

 variable error being 305 places, the probable 

 error of the figures given in the table is rather 

 large. 



In the case of age it is clear that the 

 younger men in the thousand are likely to 



are about as likely to lose as to gain, whereas 

 older men are likely to lose. There appears 

 to be a plateau between the ages of those now 

 between fifty -five and seventy-four; in the 

 course of the seven preceding years they have 

 about the same record. They tend to lose 

 about 250 places or about twice the average 

 of all the men on the list. The 24 men who 

 seven years ago were sixty-eight years of age 

 or older have nearly all lost in position. It is 

 not likely that any one of them has done any- 

 thing to lower his scientific reputation; but 

 men of the younger generation have accom- 

 plished work of greater importance, or the- 

 work of older men is forgotten because it is- 

 less contemporary. It thus appears that 

 under existing conditions in this country, 

 scientific men are likely in the course of seven 

 years to lose about 100 places. Men who have 

 obtained recognition among the thousand are 

 likely to gain if under forty; if between forty 

 and fifty they are likely to lose, and if over 

 fifty-five they are likely to lose more than the 

 average. 5 " 



* The coefficient of correlation between age and 

 gain in position is 31.7. It is, however, doubt- 

 ful whether the Galton-Pearson method can be 

 used to advantage in such cases. 



