INTRODUCTORY EXPLANATIONS. 7 



subject to draw the distinction we now explain. Pro- 

 bability is the feeling of the mind, not the inherent 

 property of a set of circumstances. It is frequently 

 referred to external objects, as if it accompanied them 

 independently of ourselves, in the same manner as we 

 imagine colour, form, &c. to abide by them. Thus we 

 hold it just to say, that a white ball may be shut up in 

 a box, and whether we allow light to shine on it or not, 

 it is still a white ball. And if we were to translate the 

 common notion, we should also say that in a lottery of 

 balls shut up in a box, each ball has its probability of 

 being drawn inseparably connected with it, just as much 

 as form, size, or colour. But this is evidently not the 

 case : two spectators, who stand by the drawer, may be 

 very differently affected with the notion of likelihood in 

 respect to any ball being drawn. Say that the question 

 is, whether a red or a green ball shall be drawn, and 

 suppose that A feels certain that all the balls are red, 



B, that all are green, while C knows nothing whatever 

 about the matter. We have here, then, in reference to 

 the drawing of a red ball, absolute certainty for or 

 against, with absolute indifference, in three different 

 persons, coming under different previous impressions. 

 And thus we see that the real probabilities may be dif- 

 ferent to different persons. The abomination called 

 intolerance, in most cases in which it is accompanied by 

 sincerity, arises from inability to see this distinction. 

 A believes one opinion, B another, C has no opinion at 

 all. One of them, say A, proceeds either to burn B or 



C, or to hang them, or imprison them, or incapacitate 

 them from public employments, or, at the least, to libel 

 them in the newspapers, according to what the feelings 

 of the age will allow ; and the pretext is, that B and C 

 are morally inexcusable for not believing what is true. 

 Now substituting* for what is true that which A be- 

 lieves to be true, he either cannot or will not see that it 



'* The refusal of this substitution is what soldiers call the key of A's position: 

 he himself sees the absurdity of his own arguments the moment it is made ; 

 and he is therefore obliged to contend for a sort of absolute truth external 

 to himself, which B or C, he declares, might attain if they pleased. 

 B 4 



