28 ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES. 



formation of the solar system. And the preceding does 

 not involve a line of argument addressed to our percep- 

 tions of beauty or utility, but one which is applied 

 every day, numerically or not, to the common business 

 of life. 



Now whether what precedes amounts to the means 

 of producing rational conviction, it is not necessary 

 for me to stop and inquire. The question is, how 

 do the results of this theory affect those moral and 

 intellectual considerations which it has been stated to 

 have a tendency to overthrow ? It matters nothing to 

 my present purpose how much of the preceding a reader 

 will admit ; for the point, considered with reference 

 to the objection before us, is this : Does the preceding 

 deduction weaken the probability of the 'existence of an 

 intelligent creative power ? for if not, the objection is 

 overthrown, and whatever strength is conceded to belong 

 to the reply is so much addition to other arguments 

 in favour of the same conclusion. Let us suppose a 

 reader so much biassed against the higher parts of 

 mathematics that he does not feel any confidence in 

 the united work of all ages and countries amounting 

 to more than a millionth of certainty. There still re- 

 mains 20,000 to 1 in favour of the conclusion above 

 stated, after weakening the preceding by introducing a 

 probability that all the exact sciences may be wrong, 

 such as his state of mind requires. With respect to the 

 bearings of the theory, we may now add the follow- 

 ing to the statement in page 24. 



Applying the first principles of the theory of proba- 

 bilities, by means of mathematics, to the phenomena of 

 the universe, it is a necessary conclusion that the ex- 

 istence of something which combines together different 

 and independent arrangements to produce an end which 

 could not, ceteris manentibus, be produced without 

 them, must be added to the notion of a Providence, in- 

 telligent or not, which is required in the first prin- 

 ciples. 



With regard to the existence of a revelation from the 



