116 ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES. 



shall proceed to show, it would be the most improbable 

 thing imaginable that there should be no such lucky 

 people. 



Firstly, every question of probabilities stands in 

 precisely the same relation to our faculties, whether \ve 

 suppose a moral government of the universe, or none at 

 all, provided that we have no reason to suppose we know 

 any thing of the plan of that government in the par- 

 ticular case in question. If I am before an urn which 

 contains a black and a white ball, which is all I know, 

 I am then disposed to say the chances are even. The 

 ball which I am to draw is undetermined (by me), and 

 that which we call chance appears to exist. But suppose 

 1 draw the ball, and without looking at it hold it in my 

 hand. That which we call chance has ceased to exist 

 the ball is actually determined, and I am clearly and 

 physically placed in the same position as I should have 

 had before the drawing, if a superintending power, 

 capable of guiding my thoughts and actions without my 

 perceiving it, had predetermined which I should draw. 

 But my position with respect to knowledge of the ball is 

 not in any way changed, either by the predetermination 

 of the superintending power before the drawing or by 

 my own act of drawing, as long as 1 do not know what 

 I am to draw or have drawn. It tells me nothing, if I 

 hear that the drawing is settled, unless it be in a manner 

 by which I can form some guess as to the nature of the 

 settlement. Consequently we must not, unless some 

 reason be shown for it, consider the question of the 

 luck of individuals in any other light, with reference to 

 calculation, than that in which it would have been 

 placed by the supposition that, ah 1 imaginable species of 

 fortune being described on the tickets of a lottery, each 

 individual had one drawing made for him at birth, 

 which should describe his future successes and reverses. 

 To create an analogous question, within reasonable 

 numerical limits, let us suppose a thousand individuals, 

 each of whom is to play two thousand deals at 



