120 



ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES. 



niously used in different years by nearly the same num- 

 bers. Let us look at the following Table, extracted 

 from the Essai de Physique Sociale of M. Quetelet. The 

 country referred to is France. 



I now compare the number of male uid female bap- 

 tisms registered in England in ]821, and the nine fol- 

 lowing years. For these successive years it is found 

 that for 1000 girls baptised there were 1048, 1047, 

 1047, 1041, 1049, 1046, 1047, 1043, 1043, and 1034 

 boys. 



Such cases as the preceding tend to establish the law 

 in question ; namely, that different large masses of facts, 

 collected under the same circumstances, will present 

 nearly the same averages. I now proceed to another 

 point, 



When two circumstances happen to change together, 

 it is frequently presumed that they are connected with 

 each other, when, in truth, there is no reason for any 

 such supposition. In order to justify any notion of 



