260 ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES. 



lished a table, which he certifies to be " abundantly safe 

 and practicable," and " so high as to insure, beyond all 

 doubt, a surplus of profit ;" which table charges pre- 

 miums at the ages in which most insurances are made, 

 falling short of those actually in use about 15 per cent. 

 These premiums are supposed not chargeable with the 

 management of the office, and at a rate of interest of 

 3-J- per cent. I take Mr. Finlaison's proposition as a 

 modified one, for there are some which go beyond it. 



On the other hand, the late Mr. Morgan could never 

 be persuaded that it was safe to abandon the North- 

 ampton table ; and considered that the superior vitality 

 of the members of the Equitable was altogether a con- 

 sequence of their being select lives. He seems to have 

 thought that, whatever run of success an office might 

 have, it should always be on the look out for reverses ; 

 and that even the enormous accumulations of his office 

 were no more than the seven good harvests, a provision 

 for other seven of a different character. 



In holding an opinion which comes between that of 

 these two authorities, I form it on a ground on which 

 neither would have rested the truth or falsehood of his 

 own. I consider the fluctuations of mortality as very 

 little to be feared, compared with those of the rate of 

 interest. It has long been matter of observation, that 

 the phenomena of the natural state of man vary but 

 little compared with those of his social condition. The 

 price of provisions swings to and fro like a pendulum ; 

 the variations of mortality which follow its changes^, 

 though sensible, bear no proportion to the magnitude of 

 their cause. The rate of interest has been halved 

 within the memory of man, and a heavy war might 

 double it again. That same war, with all its casualties, 

 direct and indirect, included, would not alter the mor- 

 tality of the country by any serious amount. I con- 

 sider it, then, as next to certain, that the insurance 

 offices have more to look for, whether as matter of hope 

 or fear, from the fluctuations of the rate of interest, 

 than from those of mortality. If the interest of money 



