252 ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES. 



point, and that of fundamental importance,, namely, the 

 possibility of a still further fall in the rate of interest, 

 it may even be doubted whether, with such tables, a still 

 lower rate of interest should not be allowed. But I 

 am not here advocating one result or another, but only 

 the necessity of taking into consideration all the pos- 

 sible sources of danger. To those who would use tables 

 of greater vitality, I concede that, so far as mortality 

 alone is concerned, the alteration is admissible ; and for 

 this reason, that experience shows human life to be 

 of a higher value than formerly ; but the concession 

 is accompanied by the requisition of a lower rate of 

 interest, and for the selfsame reason, that experience 

 shows the value of money to be less than it was. 



The preceding conclusion is reinforced by the con- 

 sideration, that the worst is to be made of every cir- 

 cumstance in our previous calculations. When mor- 

 tality is diminishing, the whole diminution is not to be 

 allowed ; but when it is increasing, a larger increase is 

 to be contemplated. A person who would walk dry- 

 shod on the sea shore, must not advance so fast as the 

 ebb, and must retreat faster than the flow. Upon this 

 consideration, the necessity of providing for a further 

 fall in the interest of money is increased ; or, which 

 amounts to the same thing, the amount by which the 

 favourable alteration in the rate of mortality may be 

 allowed to affect the premiums is less than it would be 

 if it were certain that the value of money would remain 

 unaltered. 



A very common security or guarantee to the public 

 is the announcement of a large subscribed capital, either 

 paid up in whole or part, or liable to be called for. 

 This is equivalent to the personal security of a number of 

 shareholders, collectively making themselves answerable 

 for the engagements of the office up to a certain amount. 

 Such a provision in itself is an obvious good; but, it being 

 remembered that this security must be paid for, it be- 

 comes a question how much it is worth, and whether it 

 may not be bought at too high a price. It is easily 



