282 ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES. 



offices above mentioned can be correct or just in their 

 laws for dividing tbe surplus. If the plan of the 

 Equitable is right, then most unquestionably the plan of 

 the Atlas is wrong, and great injustice is done to the 

 younger members, and so vice versa. But, is this a state 

 of things in which so important a system as that of life 

 insurance, based, as that system is, on mathematical 

 science, ought or can continue to exist ? Certainly not." 

 On this I observe, that though life insurance be an 

 application of (not based upon) mathematical science, 

 yet that the entrance of exact numerical reasoning is 

 subsequent to the admission of certain principles, and the 

 experimental acquisition of certain facts. It is not by 

 mathematics we learn that life is uncertain in individual 

 cases, but nearly certain in the mass that it is the 

 duty of every one to provide for his family and that 

 this can be done without contingency, if those who 

 survive the average term agree to surrender a part of 

 their substance to those who do not. Calculation will 

 point out the amount which, upon any given principle 

 of division, belongs to one or another of the insured ; 

 but before we can come to this point, it must be settled 

 with what intention the surplus was paid ; which may 

 be different in different offices. The following con- 

 siderations might be addressed to any person who in- 

 tends to insure his life : You are aware that the pre- 

 mium demanded of you is, avowedly, more than has 

 hitherto been found sufficient for the purpose, the reason 

 being, that it is impossible to settle the exact amount, on 

 account of our not knowing whether the future and the 

 past will coincide in giving the same law of mortality, 

 and the same interest of money. The surplus arising 

 from this overcharge, for the future existence of which 

 it is hundreds to one, is now at your own disposal, and 

 you must choose between one office and another, accord- 

 ing to your intentions with regard to its ultimate des- 

 tination. Firstly, if you doubt the general security of 

 the plan of insurance, and are desirous of an absolute 

 guarantee, independently of accumulations from pre- 



