300 ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES. 



information upon the subject is so difficult to be ob- 

 tained, that the one, two, or ten,, who believe it, or 

 profess to believe it, feel that no answer can be made to 

 the assertion. 



That there are men in the carrying world (if mer- 

 cantile world be too wide a phrase for the subject) who 

 would, from a pitiful economy, expose the seaman to 

 risks which a little outlay might prevent, is very pos- 

 sible ; there are men of such a spirit in every world : 

 that there are others who would consider such conduct 

 as little short of murder, a like analogy would equally 

 justify us in asserting. Which class has predominated 

 can only be absolutely known to the public by results, 

 without which there is but general opinion upon cha- 

 racter to aid any individual in forming his conclusion. 

 It is in human nature that the insured should not be so 

 careful as one who stands risk ; and it is, unfortunately, 

 the general experience of men acting in bodies, that they 

 are not found to be swayed by the principles which 

 would be acknowledged and acted upon by them severally. 

 Putting these things together, it is not wonderful that, 

 in any case where suspicion might attach to a body of 

 men, there should be quarters in which it does attach. 

 It would not be wonderful, either, if the suspicion were 

 found to be perfectly groundless ; but correct feeling 

 would point out the desirableness of forestalling such 

 suspicion, if possible, by the publication of all necessary 

 information. In the present instance, it would be well 

 that the proportion of loss, among insured vessels, should 

 be known ; it would not be necessary to state the values 

 of the several vessels, since the simple account of the 

 number insured, and the number on which a claim has 

 been paid, in various years, would be sufficient. The onus 

 of proving that the loss on uninsured vessels, or on 

 vessels which sailed before insurance was known, is or 

 was greater than that on insured vessels, would lie upon 

 those who make the charge. All persons, in the case of 

 any body of men, must hold every thing short of ab- 

 solute proof against them to count for nothing, when 



