304 ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES. 



one which can only be cured, if at all, by a quiet study 

 of the theory of probabilities. Perhaps some of our 

 readers may suppose, that the persons who thus court 

 ruin, do it under the notion that the results given by 

 that theory are dubious, or derived from unpractical 

 speculation, or perhaps absolutely false, So far is this 

 from being the case, that though they undoubtedly fall 

 into error by forming their notions from observation 

 unaided by theory, yet their error frequently consists 

 in representing games of chance as being more unfa- 

 vourable to themselves than they really are. Though 

 the true premises should lead them to the conclusion 

 that success is next to impossible, they cannot learn the 

 truth even from a mistake which should teach it a 

 fortiori. The author of the article " GAMING/' in the 

 Penny Cyclopcedia, states, apparently from his own 

 knowledge, that it is customary to consider the chances 

 of the bank at the game of rouge-et-noir, as 7 per 

 cent, above those of the player. Now, it can be imme- 

 diately shown, from the first appendix, that when a 

 player puts down a stake, his chances of doubling his 

 stake, of losing it, and of simply recovering it, are as 

 8903, 9122, and 1975. Now 9122 does not exceed 

 8903 by 7j per cent, of 8903. but only by about 2J per 

 cent. If, however, the preceding assertion meant that 

 the game was considered as a simple one, in which the 

 chances were as 46J to 5 3 1, the error was very large 

 indeed. So far as this one instance goes, it should 

 seem that the warning against this game, as derived 

 from observation of its results, was yet stronger 

 than that which would have been given by the 

 theory of the game. The same author adds, that he 

 heard it frequently asserted by constant frequenters 

 of the Parisian gaming-houses, that it was absolutely 

 impossible for any one to win in the long run. 



Still, however, to the hopeless attempt of squaring 

 the circle, or of finding perpetual motion, we have to 

 add that of discovering a method of certainly winning 

 at play : the attempt at which has been the ruin 



