TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP. 



19 



million cubic feet of standing timber. The total output of 

 wood in all forms is close to 1,600 million cubic feet. The 

 chissos of output not covered in the lumber-cut statistics in- 

 clude pulp wood, fuel, and distillate wood, hewed ties, posts 

 mid poles, and logs and bolts used for veneer and other pur- 

 poses. Of these, pulp wood and distillate wood make up prob- 

 ably 130 million and fuel wood GOO million cubic feet. The 

 remaining 100 million cubic feet consists of veneer, cooperage, 

 excelsior stock, ties, posts, poles, and other products. 



Deterioration of the forest. In addition to the cut there is 

 a constant loss to standing timber from fire, wind, insects, dis- 

 ease, etc., probably amounting to an annual average of from 

 one-fourth to one-half of 1 per cent of the stand. This is 

 equal to one-half billion board feet, or 110,000,000 cubic feet, 

 of standing timber. It includes such losses as that of tam- 

 arack, of which, as previously shown, about 2 billion board 

 feet has been killed by the sawfly in Minnesota alone. There 

 is also considerable loss from decay following injuries, such 

 as frost cracks and ice breakage. In most of the commercial 

 stands damage from these sources is not made up by growth, 

 since these forests are generally much beyond the age of active 

 growth. 



THE ANNUAL GROWTH. 



Orowth compared icith cut. The estimated annual growth in 

 the Lake States is much less than the cut. 



1 In terms of lumber, the aggregate annual cut of all products would be about 

 5,160,000,000 board feet, and the annual growth about 1,490,000,000 board feet. 



These figures indicate that the total rate of cutting is more 

 than three times the total rate of growth, and that the stand 

 suitable for lumber is being cut more than three times as 

 rapidly as it is growing. Furthermore, the larger part of the 

 cut is from old-growth stands in the North, while nearly all the 

 growth is in widely scattered second-growth stands. The cut 

 is relatively concentrated, while the growth is widely distributed 

 and without reference to the commercial advantages of loca- 

 tion. This is a consideration of great significance for the future 

 of the wood-using industries. The concentrated supplies are 

 steadily waning. Their disappearance will mean the death of 

 industries unable to adapt their production to a supply limited 

 by the rate of growth or to import. 



Fire renders millions of acres of cut-over forest land in the 

 Lake States unproductive. If fires could be kept out, the 

 growth on these repeatedly burned lands would probably even- 

 tually increase 50 per cent, and could be increased still further 

 by intensive management. 



The life of the industry. At a diminishing rate of depletion 

 due to the cutting out of one holding after another, it is es- 

 timated that the lumber cut of the Lake States at the end of 

 the next 5 and 10 years will be about as follows : 



Estimated cut, 1925 2,400,000,000 



Present annual cut ., 3, 500, 000, 000 



Estimated cut, 1930 1,800,000,000 



This represents only the production from commercial tracts. 

 As the commercial stands dwindle the production of lumber and 

 other products from farm wood lots and from second growth in 

 swamps and cut-over areas may be expected to increase con- 

 siderably in proportion to the total cut, though not in actual 

 amount. Such lumber will be much inferior in quality to that 

 from the commercial stands. 



PRESENT AND FUTURE CONSUMPTION OF LUMBER IN THE 

 LAKE STATES. 



The average annual per capita consumption of lumber in the 

 Lake States is probably not far from the average for the whole 

 country 300 board feet. Assuming a 12 per cent increase in 

 population since 1910 (the increase for the previous decade was 

 at the rate of 14.06 per cent), the present population of the 

 Lake States is about 8,000,000. The total annual consumption 

 of lumber in the three States is thus about 2,426,000,000 board 

 feet, or 70 per cent of the lumber produced. 



Comparison with the estimates of future cut above given 

 indicates that by 1925 the local consumption will be equal to 

 the local production, assuming no increase in population and 

 the same per capita rate of consumption. At the end of a 

 decade, allowing for a 10 per cent increase in population, con- 

 sumption will exceed cut by nearly 50 per cent. In other 

 words, the per capita consumption must either fall from 300 to 

 nearly 200 board feet per year or the Lake States must import 

 nearly one-third of the lumber needed for home use. With each 

 succeeding year the discrepancy between consumption and local 

 supply will become greater. Much western fir and pine lumber 

 is already being consumed in the Lake States, and as the local 

 cut decreases they will depend more and more upon the far West. 

 While an actual lumber shortage may not, therefore, be antici- 

 pated as long as the western stands hold out, the lack of a 

 local supply will be felt in increased prices. 



THE SOUTHERN YELLOW-PINE REGION. 



THE GROWTH AND DECLINE OF THE YELLOW-PINE INDUSTRY. 



The pine forests of the Southeastern United States, begin- 

 ning along the Atlantic coast, have been exploited for naval 

 stores and other forest products from the time of the first 

 settlements. No extensive development of the lumber industry, . 

 however, took place until the seventies of the last century. 

 Before the Civil War a limited amount of southern pine 

 lumber was shipped to Baltimore and Philadelphia in schoon- 

 ers by sawmills on the eastern shore of Maryland and near 

 tidewater in Virginia. After the Civil War the industry 

 spread to Georgia, Mississippi, and the other Gulf States. 

 The markets north of the Ohio River made their first demands 

 for southern pine about 1875. By that time the Northeastern 

 States had lost their leadership in lumber production, and the 

 Lake States were coming to the .front with about 35 per cent 

 of the country's cut. The great development of the southern 

 pine industry began in the early nineties. About 1892 yellow 

 pine from the Gulf States and Arkansas began to crowd white 

 pine in the markets north of the Ohio River. Vast quantities 

 were used in the construction of the World's Fair buildings in 

 Chicago. An extensive demand was created by the low prices 

 in the early nineties. This demand spread into the Lake 

 States, the Prairie States, and the Eastern States. At the end 

 of the nineties southern yellow pine was leading the country 

 in the cut of softwoods. In 1909 its production reached the 

 peak, with nearly half of the entire country's cut of softwoods, 

 and from then on began to decline. 



Southern yellow pine is still the most important single factor 

 in the lumber production of the United States, furnishing 

 about 41 per cent of the cut of softwood lumber and 35 per cent 

 of the entire lumber cut. It will remain an important factor 

 for at least the next 10 or 15 years. Within the next 8 or 10 

 years, however, it is certain to undergo profound changes. 



THE ORIGINAL AND THE PRESENT PINE FORESTS OF THE SOUTH. 



The original pine forests of the South Atlantic and Gulf 

 States covered from 125 to 130 million acres and had a stand 

 of timber close to 650 billion feet. Of this about two-thirds 

 was longleaf pine and one-third shortleaf pine." 



8 Under " longleaf pine " are included longleaf and slash pines ; 

 under " shortleaf pine " are included shortleaf, loblolly, scrub, and 

 other short-needled pines. 



