24 



TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP. 



GROWTH AND DEPLETION. 



The total area cut over Is approximately 6,125,000 acres, of 

 which two-thirds is in Washington and Oregon, and a very 

 large percentage west of the Cascades in the Douglas fir belt. 

 As already indicated, the total nonrestocking area of the Pacific 

 Coast States is estimated at 6,500,000 acres, but this is only 

 a part of the sum total of depletion, since there has been great 

 and needless loss from the destruction of virgin stands by fire 

 and other causes on a part of the 6,425,000 acres now support- 

 ing second growth. The area burned over annually in these 

 three States is shown by Forest Service data to amount to 

 450,000 acres, and the loss in timber to about 600,000,000 board 

 feet. 



The average annual cut, largely lumber but including rela- 

 tively small amounts of other materials, is about 10 billion board 

 feet. To this it is probably safe to add 1J billion feet lost by 

 fire and other causes. It is also probably safe to assume that 

 11 billion feet out of the total represent the drain upon saw 

 timber. Annual growth is estimated at 1,262,000,000 board feet. 

 There is in addition growth of approximately 430,000,000 cubic 

 feet in stands of unmerchantable size. Total growth in cubic 

 feet amounts to 706,000,000. 12 One reason for these compara- 

 tively low figures is, of course, the fact that so much of the 

 territory is occupied by virgin stands. Total depletion in cubic 

 feet amounts to 2,500,000,000. Depletion is therefore approxi- 

 mately three and one-half times the growth. The depletion in 

 timber of saw timber size is approximately nine times the 

 growth of the same class of material. 



LIFE OF THE INDUSTRY. 



The timber stand in California is estimated at 313,331,000,000 

 board feet. This is being reduced by cutting at the rate of 

 about 1,500,000,000 feet annually. These figures should not be 

 taken alone, however, for there are other important aspects of 

 the situation. Increased demands from the East will almost 

 certainly result in an increased rate of cut for California. 

 Practically all of the cut up to the present has been in the most 

 accessible stands, whereas a considerable part of the remain- 

 ing timber is comparatively inaccessible. 



Logging operations are now removing annually a little less 

 than 2 per cent of western Washington's timber and less than 1 

 per cent of western Oregon's timber. Yet the reasonably ac- 

 cessible timber and that in private ownership is going very 

 much faster, and with decreasing southern pine production 

 enormous pressure to increase the cut may be expected. 



A study of the local timber supply indicates that in certain 

 localities a large proportion has been cut off and that log- 

 ging operations are being pushed back to the less accessible 

 timber in the rougher mountainous regions. The exhaustion 

 of local supplies is a vital matter to local prosperity and de- 

 velopment. It means the cessation of a local industry, the 

 abandonment of improvements, rapid depreciation of Invest- 

 ment, and other losses which the industry, the community, and 

 the consumer must shoulder. One authority estimates that only 

 a third of the original privately owned timber tributary to 

 Puget Sound remains.' The situation in Grays Harbor County 

 illustrates the rapid exploitation which in a surprisingly short 

 time is to end the industry locally. About 20 years ago there 

 were in this county 750,000 acres of timber and only about 

 75,000 acres of cuttings. Now there are 355,000 acres of stumps. 

 One-sixteenth of the county's private timberland is being cut 

 over annually. In 25 years the supply of privately owned virgin 

 timber will be gone. 



King and Snohomish Counties, Wash., the scene of the earli- 

 est lumbering operations in the Northwest, also illustrate local 

 exhaustion of virgin timber in the not very remote future. 

 Forty billion of the original 80 billion feet of commercial timber 



"Equivalent to about 2,100,000,000 board feet. 



has been cut. Thirty billion of the remainder is in private 

 ownership, and is now being felled at the rate of 800,000,000 

 feet annually. Indications are that this private timber will be 

 gone in about 35 years. 



One authority on the lumber supplies of Washington has 

 studied the rate of exhaustion from the annually decreasing 

 acreages of private land assessed as " timberland." He found 

 that from 1909 to 1919 there was a decrease in the acreage of 

 timberland in western Washington of about 850,000 acres, or 

 85,000 acres annually, and in eastern Washington of about 

 390,000, or 39,000 acres annually. On the basis of 3,585,686 

 acres assessed as timberland in 1919 in western Washington, 

 privately owned old-growth timber would last 42 years at the 

 present rate of cutting. Similarly, in eastern Washington, for 

 the 1,128,666 acres of private timberland in 1919, the present 

 rate of cutting would exhaust the virgin timber in 26 years. 

 Adjusting these statistics to provide for additional land which 

 was classified as timberland in 1919 but not in 1909, he believes 

 that an even faster rate of cutting of the private stumpage is 

 indicated, and that, disregarding increment in second-growth 

 stands and without allowing for the expected increased cut, the 

 private virgin timber will last only 35 years in western Wash- 

 ington and 20 years in eastern Washington. Allowing for the 

 almost certain increased rate of cutting, he expects the privately 

 owned virgin timber supply of Washington to be virtually gone 

 in 20 years unless forest policies are changed. 



Bend, Oreg., is the center of one of the most extensive and 

 famous of Oregon's yellow-pine belts. A few years ago an 

 unbroken forest of virgin yellow pine extended to the very 

 edges of the city. At present cutting has left a practically 

 unbroken waste for 6 or 7 miles to the west and south. The 

 operating territory surrounding Bend has a radius of from 

 20 to 30 miles and occupies an area of 382,000 acres of mer- 

 chantable forest, carrying 5J billion feet of commercial timber. 

 Of this about 231,000 acres, carrying 3} billion feet, is pri- 

 vately owned. The present rate of cutting, which is likely to 

 continue and may be augmented, will exhaust the privately 

 owned stumpage in 25 to 30 years. 



Depletion in Washington has gone much further than in 

 Oregon, and while an expansion of the industry in Washington 

 under increased demands from eastern markets may reason- 

 ably be expected, by far the greater part of the expansion may 

 be looked for in Oregon. The reason for the slower develop- 

 ment in Oregon lies in the greater inaccessibility of its Douglas 

 fir stands. Many operations now being seriously considered 

 for Oregon will require transportation and other investments 

 running into the millions of dollars before any timber can be 

 taken out. 



The factor of local consumption must also be considered. 

 California is an example. Its industry is large and promises 

 to grow. From the earliest days California has been an im- 

 portant source of export material. Large quantities are still 

 exported to the East and to foreign countries; but up to the 

 present time the State's population and agricultural and indus- 

 trial development have more than kept pace with the output 

 of lumber, so that it is doubtful whether production has ex- 

 ceeded consumption since about 1875. From the beginning of 

 lumbering on Puget Sound California has imported large 

 amounts of fir. The per capita lumber cut of the State has 

 been approximately equal to or slightly in excess of the 

 average per capita consumption of the United States since 

 between 1869 and 1879, while the average consumption of the 

 State is probably somewhat greater than for the country as 

 a whole. In 1919 southern California alone used the equivalent 

 of about half the total cut of the State, a per capita con- 

 sumption of at least twice that of the whole United States. 



The lumber cut for the Pacific Coast States as a whole will 

 undoubtedly increase very materially during the next 10 years. 



