12 



TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP. 



raw material locally. Unfortunately, in most cases it is the 

 local supplies which have been most depleted, and the existing 

 situation has tended to eliminate much more rapidly than in 

 normal times the small concern in the best position to supply 

 cheap products. 



With uncertainty as to supplies, with equal or greater uncer- 

 tainty as to the costs, and with almost frantic bidding between 

 members of the same industry and between different industries 

 for materials, a larger speculative element than has ever before 

 been known has been introduced into the sale of lumber and its 

 further manufacture. This, again, has increased prices to the 

 ultimate consumer, and in extreme cases, such as dwelling 

 houses, has removed the possibility of purchase from large 

 classes. Many industries which were operated on a compara- 

 tively stable basis under prewar conditions now find themselves 

 upon an uncertain and highly speculative basis. 



Other changes which are much less known, but almost equally 

 bad, might be mentioned. One will suffice. The hardwood- 

 producing industry commonly held its stocks for several months 

 or a year for seasoning. Consuming industries commonly car- 

 ried in stock supplies sufficient to meet one or even two years' 

 requirements. When material was needed it was already sea- 

 soned for manufacture. Artificial methods of drying were 



largely unnecessary and neither equipment nor personnel was 

 provided. Growing out of the conditions described, a very great 

 increase in artificial drying has become necessary ; and this 

 has been accompanied by difficulties in securing an adequate 

 number of kilns and great losses in initial kiln operating, some- 

 times reaching 40 per cent or even higher and aggravating the 

 shortage. 



Enough examples have been given to show the almost limit- 

 less ramifications through which shortages and high prices of 

 forest products reach the public. The building industry, agri- 

 culture, the railroads, the press, house furniture, tools these 

 and their like concern, our entire population. Shortages and 

 high prices, accordingly, seriously affect the whole Nation. 



With a realization of the existing situation with respect to 

 representative industries and classes of consumers, the facts as 

 to depletion and prices acquire greater significance, and it is 

 possible to analyze to better advantage the factors which are 

 responsible. The discussion falls logically under two heads : 



1. The abnormal conditions which have affected the forest 

 industries and their products along with all other industries and 

 commodities. 



2. The cumulative effect of forest depletion, both in the coun- 

 try as a whole and in the more important timber regions. 



ABNORMAL CONDITIONS IN RELATION TO PRESENT SCARCITY AND HIGH PRICES. 



The principa' effect of the war upon the lumber industry was 

 to reduce the stocks available for ordinary purposes, through 

 curtailment of production and through the diversion of large 

 quantities of timber to special war uses. War requirements led 

 to the placing of large orders for unusual sizes and dimensions 

 for such products as Army wagons and wooden ships. Through 

 Government regulation of transportation, of the use of capital, 

 of new construction, and even of extensions and repairs, ordi- 

 nary distribution was practically discontinued before the sign- 

 ing of the armistice. The lumber cut of the country fell from 

 a prewar average of around 40 billion feet to a reported cut of 

 only a little more than 33 billion feet in 1917, and of less than 

 30 billion feet in 1918. A very considerable proportion of this 

 material, as previously indicated, was utilized for essential 

 war purposes. 



Surplus woods and mill labor, skilled and unskilled alike, 

 was rapidly drawn into other industries or into the fighting 

 forces. In addition the lumber industry found itself in com- 

 petition for labor with other industries producing war essen- 

 tials. By the time of the cessation of hostilities a very con- 

 siderable percentage of the labor ordinarily employed in lumber 

 production had been diverted and scattered. Lumber stocks at 

 the mills and those in the wholesale and retail yards of the 

 country were very short and badly broken. The industry, there- 

 fore, came out of the war more or less disorganized as to labor, 

 production, stocks, and markets. 



Following a period of great uncertainty on the part of 

 the public, as well as of the industry, as to possible develop- 

 ments, the demand for lumber began and rapidly grew far be- 

 yond any anticipation. The shortage of houses was already 

 serious in the United States at the beginning of the war. Dur- 

 ing the war it became very much worse. Without any stimulus 

 whatever the demand for dwelling houses would have absorbed 

 large quantities of lumber. The " build-a-home " movement was 

 fostered by the Federal Government itself. 



Industrial construction had during the war also fallen far 

 behind the growing demands of the country. Railroad purchase 

 for repairs had necessarily been held to a minimum and exten- 

 sions had practically been eliminated. The growing freight 

 requirements of the country necessitated large-scale betterments 

 and material extension. Similar demands had piled up during 

 the war in practically all of the industries which use lumber. 



This accumulated demand soon absorbed the short stock avail- 

 able, and lumber manufacturers were overwhelmed with orders. 



The lumber industry found itself unable to increase produc- 

 tion rapidly. The output in 1919 was below normal in all the 

 principal lumber regions of the country, with the possible 

 exception of the South. In many of the former regions of large 

 lumber output, the Lake States, New England, New York, Penn- 

 sylvania, and the Southern Appalachians, the timber is so 

 largely gone that there was little opportunity for material ex- 

 pansion in cut to meet abnormal demands. In regions with 

 timber reserves other factors have held the cut down. 



In the southern pine region bad weather hampered logging 

 operations during the latter part of 1919. Precipitation was 

 far above the average. This reduced the log production, and 

 even caused shortages which compelled many mills to run on 

 part time. During the first 11 months of the year 135 sub- 

 scribing mills reported to the Southern Pine Association a 

 total loss of 80,213 hours, or approximately 60 working days 

 each, 41,878 hours or 31 working days each, being due to a 

 shortage of logs. On the basis of normal production this loss 

 represented a decrease in production for the 135 mills of nearly 

 600,000,000 feet. 



In the southern hardwood region weather conditions have 

 been unfavorable since the fall of 1918. In the fall of 1919 

 the conditions, already very bad, became much worse, and 

 effective logging or in some cases any logging has become 

 practically impossible through repeated rains and floods. Nor- 

 mal log deliveries for one group of hardwood mills in October 

 and November, 1919, were but one-third of the quantities deliv- 

 ered during the same months in 1916. 



Some of the labor drawn away from the lumber industry 

 during the war preferred other employment and remained in 

 the towns and cities or in other sections of the country. It 

 is estimated that southern pine operators were confronted 

 with an average labor shortage of 20 per cent, and in many 

 other lumber-producing regions operators found themselves un- 

 able to secure and hold full crews. 



The industry has been obliged to pay higher wages and grant 

 shorter h'ours, and has possibly suffered from decreased effici- 

 ency. In the case of one operation in the South it required 23 

 man hours in July. 1914, to produce 1,000 board feet of lumber, 

 while in July, 1919, it required 37J man hours. Again, in July, 



