LUMBER EXPORTS AND TIMBER DEPLETION. 



LUMBER EXPORTS BEFORE AND DURING THE WAR. 



Prior to the war, the United States exported annually about 

 3 billion board feet of lumber and saw logs, aside from con- 

 siderable quantities of railroad ties, staves, and other wood 

 products. The export trade absorbed about 8A per cent of the 

 lumber cut. Nearly half of the lumber shipped abroad was 

 southern yellow pine, and softwoods all told constituted about 

 79 per cent of the export trade. An important factor in the 

 foreign trade is the export of high-grade hardwoods. More than 

 10 per cent of the yearly cut of oak, or about 300 million board 

 feet (mostly white oak), was exported, in addition to 41 million 

 feet in the form of staves. Seven per cent of the annual cut of 

 yellow poplar, or 35 million feet, was exported, and nearly 50 

 per cent of the yearly cut of black walnut, or about 25 million 

 board feet. Considerable quantities of hickory, ash, and other 

 high-grade woods for vehicle parts, agricultural Implements, 

 etc., were also exported. 



In 1913, 37 per cent of the lumber exports were shipped to 

 Europe, 30 per cent to North America (chiefly Canada and 

 Mexico), and 16 per cent to South America. 



The foreign lumber trade fell off to a marked degree during 

 the war, particularly lumber exports to Europe. The total 

 exports in 1918 and 1919 were but one-third of the quantities of 

 lumber and logs exported in 1913. The foreign trade in hard- 

 woods 1ms shown the least decline, the volume exported in 

 1918 being 88 per cent of that in 1913. 



PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN LUMBER EXPORTS. 



Following the suspension of hostilities, lumber exports have 

 been very slow in returning to their prewar volume, mainly 

 on account of exchange rates running against European 

 countries, high charter rates~on shipping, and the unprecedented 

 demand and high prices for lumber in our domestic markets. 

 As more normal trade conditions with Europe are reestablished 

 there will undoubtedly be a marked increase in lumber exports. 

 The emergency needs of Europe for reconstruction and long- 

 delayed expansion in housing facilities, railroads, etc., have been 

 estimated at 7 billion feet of lumber annually for some time to 

 come over and above the consumption of normal times. Great 

 Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Belgium, and Holland are 

 lumber-importing nations now experiencing exceptional and 

 often acute shortages of wood as an aftermath of the war. For 

 the most urgent reconstruction and expansion, particularly of 

 railroads, these countries will presumably seek to obtain lum- 

 ber in large quantities from the United States as soon as ex- 

 change rates reach a stable and more satisfactory basis. In- 

 quiries for several million railroad ties from Great Britain and 

 France have, for example, been made of American manufac- 

 turers, and indications point to a relatively steady demand from 

 Europe for this product. 



It is, nevertheless, improbable that the United States will be 

 called upon for any considerable part of the ordinary grades of 

 building lumber required in the reconstruction of western 

 Europe. Europe itself contains large quantities of timber suit- 

 able for such purposes, particularly in Russia. Finland, Sweden, 

 Norway, and the new countries carved out of the Austro- 

 Hungarian Empire. Large lumber stocks accumulated In the 

 countries of the Baltic Sea during the war await marketing. 



The pressure upon all European countries having extensive for- 

 est resources to exploit them and develop trade relations for 

 marketing their products as a means of industrial rehabilita- 

 tion will be very great. These countries, with their advantage 

 of proximity, better knowledge of trade customs and require- 

 ments, and the cheapness of their products, bid fair to supply 

 the bulk of the demands for lumber of general utility arising 

 from the war. 



On the other hand, European demands for high-grade timber 

 products from the United States, such as large structural and 

 ship timbers, flooring, hardwood staves, and furniture, vehicle, 

 or implement stock will increase. High-grade woods suitable 

 for many of these purposes can not be had in large quantities 

 from any European sources now available for exploitation. 

 The recent improvement in the exchange rate with Great 

 Britain apparently has already brought a marked increase In 

 the British demand for hardwoods, which is a factor in fur- 

 ther reducing stocks and maintaining high prices on hardwood 

 lumber required by American furniture makers and other 

 manufacturers. Hickory and ash handles are now going to 

 Europe in considerable quantities, the foreign demand for 

 these products again being a factor which affects stocks and 

 prices in the domestic markets. 



As previously indicated, the European trade forms less than 

 40 per cent of our lumber exports. The development of Cen- 

 tral and South America, parts of Africa, China, Australia, and 

 New Zealand will naturally result in a gradual increase in 

 IniiTlier exports to those countries. Central and South America, 

 while containing large hardwood forests, are now dependent 

 upon imports from the United States, Canada, and Sweden for 

 the bulk of their softwoods, the chief staple in international 

 timber trade. Several of these regions may in time develop 

 forest industries sufficient to supply their own needs, and new 

 sources of international lumber supply may be developed in 

 regions like Siberia. Nevertheless, the United States must 

 anticipate a gradual but material increase in the demand for 

 its lumber products from these parts of the world for some 

 time to come. This demand will comprise mainly lumber of 

 relatively high grade. It will, however, probably run to less 

 specialized and high quality products than the European trade 

 and will consist chiefly of the better grades of softwood build- 

 ing and construction lumber, with considerable quantities of 

 railroad ties. 



The exports to Canada and Mexico, on relatively short-rail 

 and coastwise shipments, will comprise an average run of 

 sawmill products corresponding to -that taken by the domestic 

 trade. 



EFFECTS OF EXPORTS UPON DOMESTIC TIMBER 

 SUPPLIES. 



The depletion of the virgin forests of the United States is 

 making itself felt first through the growing scarcity of timber 

 of high quality the products cut from large, clear logs repre- 

 senting the cream of our virgin forests. During the past 25 

 years such products have risen in price more rapidly than the 

 common .snides of lumber. The most serious effect of the for- 

 eign trade will be to increase the shortage of high quality prod- 

 ucts, because it is exactly such products which are short the 

 world over and which lumber-importing nations will in thr long 

 run most desire to obtain from the United States. 



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