Measuring Total Croi' Production 77 



not have full effect till 1895 and 1896. A single crop year which 

 is only slightly below average may have no effect whatever on 

 business. But when three crop years average below normal, there 

 is almost certain to be some effect on business. From 1903 to 

 1919, the correlation between crops and the price of securities on 

 the stock exchange was about .53. Professor H. L. Moore, in his 

 book on "Economic Cycles," finds between crop yields per acre and 

 pig iron production a correlation coefficient of .72, pig iron pro- 

 duction lagging about a year behind crops. 



Big crops do mean good business, altho the}' mean prosperity 

 to the farming class chiefly in an indirect way. A small crop 

 generally brings farmers more money than a large crop, but small 

 crops over a period of two or three years cause business depression 

 and this reacts on farmers. 



The problem of both business men and farmers is to devise some 

 means of giving farmers as a class a financial interest in producing 

 big crops rather than small crops. 



