Mathematical Study of Supply axd Demand 9T 



into percentage departures from the secular trend corrected sea- 

 sonally: .90 of bank clearings in percentage departures minus .51 

 of hog receipts in percentage departures equals the percentage 

 which hog prices depart from their secular corrected seasonally. 

 For instance, in January, 1903, bank clearings were 8 per cent 

 above the secular corrected seasonally, and hog receipts were 5 per 

 cent below. Eight times .90 plus 5 times .51 gives 9.7 as the per- 

 centage which we would expect hog prices to be over their secular 

 corrected seasonally. The secular for January, 1903, was $5.19; 

 9.7 per cent of $5.19 gives 50 cents. The secular corrected sea- 

 sonally for January, 1903, is $4.98. Add 50 cents to $4.98 and 

 we get $5.48 as the price which we would have expected heavy hogs 

 to sell at Chicago in January, 1903, on the basis of good business 

 and small hog receipts. Actually, hogs sold for $6.60, or $1.12 

 over the price predicted by formula. 



This is done for all the months from 1903 to 1916, and the 

 supply-and-demand price of hogs, as derived from hog receipts at 

 Chicago and bank clearings outside of New York is charted in 

 Chart VIII, in comparison with the actual prices. 



