PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF HOG PRICES 



WE ASSUME that at the present time, and probably for some 

 time to come, we are on a basis of 90 per cent above 1913 

 for hog prices, and 100 per cent over 1913 in bank clearings. This 

 conclusion is based to some extent on the reasoning presented in 

 the June monthly supplement of the Harvard Review of Economic 

 Statistics for the jxar 1919. 



On this basis, the secular trend of heavy hog prices at Chicago, 

 modified seasonally, should be roughly as follows for the several 

 years beginning with 1919: January, $14.35; February, $15.07; 

 March, $15.82; April, $15.67; May, $15.22; June, $15.22; July, 

 $15.52; August, $15.22; September, $15.52; October, $15.07; 

 November, $14.16, and December, $13.86.* This is on the assump- 

 tion that hog prices and prices generally will have for their normal 

 mean a level 90 per cent above the 1913 level. It is expected that 

 in a rough way hog prices will depart from this level according to 

 the size of hog receipts and the condition of general business as 

 expressed by bank clearings. (During 1920, and possibly 1921, 

 heavy exports will doubtless have influence.) 



The secular trend of bank clearings outside New York, modi- 

 fied seasonally, for the year beginning with 1919, is taken as; 

 January, $13^,952,000,000; February, $11,64-8,000,000; March, 

 $13,056,000,000; April, $12,800,000,000; May, $12,416,000.,- 

 000; June, $12,416,000,000; July, $12,544,000,000; August, 

 $11,648,000,000; September, $12,032,000; October, $13,824,000,- 

 000 ; November, $13,440,000,000, and December, $13,824,000,000. 



The secular trend of hog receipts at Chicago in millions of 

 pounds, modified seasonally, for the period beginning with 1919, 

 is taken as: January, 184; February, 163; ]\Iarch, 143; April, 

 118; May, 139; June, 139; July, 121; August, 121; September, 

 103; October, 120; November, 144, and December, 180. 



Based on the formula as secured in the preceding chapter (hog 

 price equals .56 bank clearings minus .56 hog receipts), we would 

 expect the following scale of hog prices in Januarys when receipts 



♦These figures are based on seasonal correction factors as follows: 

 January, 96; February, 100; March, 105; April, 104; May, 101; June, 101; 

 July, 103; August, 101; September, 103; October, 100; November, 94; 

 December, 92. These factors are practically the same as those used on 

 page 84. 



