64 FISH AND CAME COMMISSION. 



frt'tioii of" tlioory iiiny lead iilliiiintoly to the acciiralc ohscrvatioii of 

 the eoiulitioii ol' tlic six'cics. Xo ti'oiihlc or expense slioiild be s[)arecl 

 to accomplish this end. since the sardine fishery promises to ineroase 

 far beyond its present luinnds. and since the problems to be met with in 

 the sardine investigation are faced in oilier great fisheries, but have 

 never been solved. 



The sardine is a source of food for almost all our other great fisheries, 

 such as the albacore, barracuda, sea bass, and tuna. Tampering with 

 its abundance may result disastrously to many interests — and in the 

 absence of an.y clear-cut and sensitive method of detecting overfishing, 

 the greatest caution must be used. The writer has convinced himself 

 that unnecessary drain upon the supply should be avoided until 

 research has shown that it is possible to detect overfishing in time, and 

 for that reason it is his belief that the u>se of sardines for fertilizer 

 should be emphatically condemned, and a more conservative growth of 

 the fishery awaited. Were we considering the use of the water in a 

 great river, would it be wise to recklessly disregard all the industries 

 which inight be dependent upon the uuinteri'upted continuance of its 

 flow? Would it not be wiser to use the water only when its use was 

 clearly more valuable than the industries dependent upon it? 



And in the meantime, the need to develop our technique of detection 

 of overfishing can not be too emphatically stated. No other agency 

 than the state government is in a position so to do, and no government 

 has as yet succeeded in developing such technique, or indeed, made any 

 thorough attempt at it. 



The program of investigation of the sardine has, however, indicated 

 that the prophesying of the commercial catch a short period in advance 

 is possible and feasible and there is every prospect that further study 

 will refine and perfect our methods. This is indeed fortunate, as hope 

 of detecting overfishing in the future depends upon the thorough 

 analysis of the catch, an object that is justified by its practical results 

 alone. 



This analysis of the catch will accomplish another important end, 

 namely, the clear understanding of the cases in which success in spawn- 

 ing is lacking for a number of years, causing fish to become scarce, and 

 bringing into existence an urgent popular demand for radical restric- 

 tion of the fishery. In such cases it is going to be possible to show that 

 the older fish are not particularly affected by the particular cause of the 

 scarcity, and it should be possible to prophesy the restoration of the 

 fishery in time to avoid undue restriction. 



In conclusion, the net results of the sardine investigations are that 

 the present progi'am is correct in the main but that more careful atten- 

 tion must be given to the statistics of catch and to the recording of 

 method. It is going to be possible to foretell the catch, although detec- 

 tion of overfishing is shown to be further removed. 



THE ALBACORE INVESTIGATION. 



During the past two seasons observations have been made upon the 

 albacore runs, as usual. The results from these have been filed away, 

 but are now being subjected to analysis since the completion of the 

 sardine work has allowed the concentration of the assistants upon the 

 data. The report upon the albacore, which has been for some time in 



