Precision 

 Present 



SCIENTIFIC SIDE-LIGHTS 



550 



tions had taken place during the preceding 

 months. JUDD Volcanoes, ch. 4, p. 72. (A., 

 1899.) 



2 7 1C. PREDICTION OF CONDUCT 

 Perfect Knowledge Would Be Perfect Fore- 

 knowledge. We can predict conduct with al- 

 most perfect certainty when we know char- 

 acter with an equal measure of assurance, 

 and when we know the influences to which 

 that character will be exposed. In propor- 

 tion as we are sure of character, in the same 

 proportion we are sure of conduct. Yet we 

 never think of the will being the less free 

 because we can predict its course. What we 

 know in such cases is simply the use which, 

 under given conditions, will be made of free- 

 dom. There is no certainty in the world of 

 physics more absolute than some certainties 

 in the world of mind. We know that a 

 humane man will not do a uselessly cruel 

 action. We know that an honorable man 

 will not do a base action. And if in such 

 cases we are deceived in the result, we know 

 that it is because we were ignorant of some 

 weakness or of some corruption; that is to 

 say, we were ignorant of some elements of 

 character. But we never doubt that if those 

 had been known we could have foreseen the 

 resulting lapse. Perfect knowledge must 

 therefore be perfect foreknowledge. To know 

 the present perfectly is to know the future 

 certainly. To know all that is, is to know 

 all that will be. To know the heart of man 

 completely is to know his conduct completely 

 also ; for " out of the heart are the issues 

 of life." So far from this conclusion being 

 dangerous or hostile to any part of the 

 Christian system, it is a conclusion which 

 enables us, in a dim way, not merely to 

 hold as a belief, but to see as a necessary 

 truth that there can be no chance in this 

 world and how it is, and must be, that to 

 the All-seeing and All-knowing the future 

 is as open as the present and the past. But 

 none of these ideas involve the idea of com- 

 pulsion, and the absence of Compulsion is all 

 that can be meant by freedom. ARGYLL 

 Reign of Law, ch. 6, p. 185. (Burt.) 



2711. PREDICTION OF EARTH- 

 QUAKES True Prophecies Remembered, Er- 

 roneous Forgotten. Certain persons with 

 whom I am intimate appear to have per- 

 suaded themselves that they can foretell 

 the coming of an earthquake by the sultry 

 state of the atmosphere or a certain op- 

 pressiveness they feel, and an instinctive 

 feeling arises that an earthquake is at hand. 

 . . . The author has had such sensations 

 himelf, due, perhaps, to a knowledge that 

 it was the earthquake season, that there 

 had been no disturbance for some weeks, 

 and a consequent increasing state of nervous 

 presentiment. In consequence of this not 

 only has he carefully prepared his instru- 

 ments for the coming shock, but he has 

 written and telegraphed to friends to do the 

 same. Sometimes these guesses have proved 

 correct. One remarkable instance was a few 



hours prior to the severe shock of February 

 22, 1880, when he wired to his friends in 

 Yokohama and asked them to see that their 

 instruments were in good order. Oftener, 

 however, his prognostications have been in- 

 correct. The point in connection with this 

 subject which he wishes to be remarked is, 

 that the instances where earthquakes oc- 

 curred shortly after the receipt of his let- 

 ters are carefully remembered, and often 

 mentioned, but the instances in which earth- 

 quakes did not occur appear to be entirely 

 forgotten. He is led to mention these facts 

 because they appear to be an experimental 

 proof of what has taken place in bygone 

 times, and what still takes place, especially 

 amongst savages namely, that the record 

 of that which is remarkable survives, whilst 

 that which is of every-day occurrence quickly 

 dies. MILNE Earthquakes, ch. 18, p. 302. 

 (A., 1899.) 



2712. PREDICTION, SCIENTIFIC, FUL- 

 FILLED Pasteur and Silkworms. It was 

 not . . . easy to make the [silkworm] 

 cultivators accept new guidance. To strike 

 their imagination, and if possible determine 

 their practise, Pasteur hit upon the expedi- 

 ent of prophecy. In 1866 he inspected, at St. 

 Hippolyte-du-Fort, fourteen different par- 

 cels of eggs intended for incubation. Hav- 

 ing examined a sufficient number of the 

 moths which produced these eggs, he wrote 

 out the prediction of what would occur in 

 1867, and placed the prophecy as a sealed 

 letter in the hands of the Mayor of St. 

 Hippolyte. In 1867 the cultivators com- 

 municated to the mayor their results. The 

 letter of Pasteur was then opened and read, 

 and it was found that in twelve out of four- 

 teen cases there was absolute conformity 

 between his prediction and the observed 

 facts. Many of the groups had perished 

 totally: the others had perished almost to- 

 tally; and this was the prediction of Pas- 

 teur. In two out of the fourteen cases, in- 

 stead of the prophesied destruction, half an 

 average crop was obtained. TYNDALL Float- 

 ing Matter of the Air, essay 1, p. 13. (A., 

 1895.) 



2713. Scientist Foretells 



Result of Ignoring Scientific Laws Light- 

 ing-mast on Capitol Destroyed by Electric- 

 ity. [An] apparatus had been erected at 

 great expense for the purpose of lighting 

 the public grounds. It consisted of a mast 

 reaching to the height of ninety feet above 

 the apex of the dome of the Capitol [at 

 Washington], terminated by a lantern about 

 five feet in diameter and six or seven feet 

 high. In this were jet gas-burners, equal 

 in illuminating power, according to the 

 statement of the projector of the arrange- 

 ment, to six thousand wax candles. 



After the whole apparatus had been pre- 

 pared, the speaker was requested to give an 

 opinion as to the effect which the lightning 

 might have upon it. His answer was that 

 it would attract the lightning from the 



