APPENDIX III. 



" The forecast of the probable character of the rainfall during 

 the south-west monsoon of 1898 was issued in the same form as in 

 the preceding seven years in the Gazette of India of the 4th of 

 June, 1898, under the heading of 'Memorandum on the Snowfall 

 in the Mining Districts bordering Northern India, and the 

 abnormal features of the weather in India during the past year, 

 with a forecast of the probable character of the south-west 

 monsoon rains of 1898.' " 



The following gives a statement of the forecast as published in 

 the Memorandum: "The consideration of the cyclical period 

 through which India has passed indicates that the year 1897 was 

 probably the last year of what may be termed the ' negative 

 phase.' A period of fairly normal conditions is now probable for 

 some time in the Indian monsoon and south-east trades regions. . . 



" Taking all the facts into consideration, it is probable the 

 monsoon currents will be at least of normal strength, but that 

 there may be, in consequence of the abnormal snowfall (moderate 

 however) in the Punjab Himalayas during the month of May, 

 slight delay in the establishment of the Bombay current. 



" Judging only from the conditions in India itself and the known 

 conditions in the Indian Seas, it is, on the whole, very probable 

 that the monsoon currents will be of normal strength, and 

 probably they will be somewhat stronger than usual. The 

 Bombay current is more likely to be above its normal strength 

 than the Bay current ; bnt the probabilities for this are small, 

 not exceeding 5 to 2. 



"Assuming that the currents will be of normal strength, the 

 comparison with previous years (more especially 1883, 1888, 1890, 

 and 1892) indicates that it is probable they will set in about the 

 normal time on both the Bengal and Bombay coasts. The 

 Seychelles observations are also in favour of this inference. It is 

 possible that from the action stated above, the Bombay current 

 may be slightly retarded, and there is a slight probability that it 

 may be not so strong as usual in June. . . . 



" The conditions in the Indian seas and the Indian Ocean are, 

 so far as can be ascertained, satisfactory and favourable, and 

 indicate that the conditions in the south-east trades regions are 

 at least normal, and that the air movement in that area is 

 somewhat stronger than usual. 



"Conditions are favourable to the prevalence of monsoon 

 currents of at least normal strength in the Bay of Bengal. The 

 rains will probably commence about the normal date in Bengal. 



" Conditions are also, on the whole, favourable to the prevalence 

 of monsoon currents of at least normal strength in the Arabian 

 Sea. The abnormal snowfall in the Punjab Himalayas may 

 slightly retard the establishment of the monsoon on the Bombay 

 coast, and cause it to be slightly warmer than the normal in 

 June. The influence of the snowfall will very probably be slight, 

 and, so far as can be judged, the monsoon ought to set in on the 

 Bombay coast before the 7th of June. 



" It should be carefully noted that the preceding probabilities 

 are obtained on the assumption that the currents will be nor: 

 in strength or slightly stronger than usual, and that . 

 require to be considerably modified if the monsoon "' cu 

 should be much stronger or much warmer than usual. 1 ' 



