216 HUME X 



of business or of politics, involves the acknowledg- 

 ment that we base our expectation of what men 

 will do, upon our observation of what they have 

 done ; and, that we are as firmly convinced of the 

 fixed order of thoughts as we are of that of things. 

 And, if it be urged that human actions not un- 

 frequently appear unaccountable and capricious, his 

 reply is prompt : 



' ' I grant it possible to find some actions which seem to have 

 no regular connexion with any known motives, and are excep- 

 tions to all the measures of conduct which have ever been 

 established for the government of men. But if one could 

 willingly know what judgment should be formed of such 

 irregular and extraordinary actions, we may consider the 

 sentiments commonly entertained with regard to those irregular 

 events which appear in the course of nature, and the opera- 

 tions of external objects. All courses are not conjoined to 

 their usual effects with like uniformity. An artificer, who 

 handles only dead matter, may be disappointed in his aim, as 

 well as the politician who directs the conduct of sensible and 

 intelligent agents. 



"The vulgar, who take things according to their first appear- 

 ance, attribute the uncertainty of events to such an uncertainty 

 in the causes as make the latter often fail of their usual 

 influence, though they meet with no impediment to their opera- 

 tion. But philosophers, observing that, almost in every part 

 of nature, there is contained a vast variety of springs and 

 principles, which are hid, by reason of their minuteness or 

 remoteness, find that it is at least possible the contrariety of 

 events may not proceed from any contingency in the cause, but 

 from the secret operation of contrary causes. This possibility is 

 converted into certainty by further observation, when they 

 remark that, upon an exact scrutiny, a contrariety of effects 

 always betrays a contrariety of causes, and proceeds from their 

 mutual opposition. A peasant can give no better reason for 



