mean the success or failure of our agricultural 

 industry. 



(Governor Olson): That's a good point. Of 

 course, initially, as governor of North Dakota, I'm wor- 

 ried about losing these in the first place. 



(Governor Ariyoshi): Mr. Chairman, because these 

 are some important gentlemen, I'd like to do some 

 lobbying and especially to make some comments, 

 because of the comments prompted by Dr Borlaug 

 about the ocean in terms of energy, fisheries and min- 

 ing of the ocean. I think there is tremendous potential 

 there. The other comment I want to make was no 

 one has talked about aquaculture here. I think there 

 is a tremendous potential in our country for 

 aquaculture 



"It's the customer that we're worried 



about because he is the fellow that 



ultimately is going to mean the success 



or failure of our agricultural 



industry. " 



Two weeks ago I announced in Hawaii that we 

 were having the first salt water shrimp farm — in the 

 planning design stage — commencing in our state. 

 This is a project going to Mexico and, with the help of 

 the University of Arizona, a great deal of research has 

 been done. We first started off in our state trying to 

 promote a great deal of aquaculture We have an 

 oyster farm right now in existence that can mature an 

 oyster in nine months that will take three and a half 

 years in any other part of the world. I really feel very 

 strongly about the prospects for us to be able to farm 

 in the ocean. Aquaculture, I think, is a very important 

 part of food production in the future of our country. 



(Governor Lamm): Governor Spellman. 



(Governor Spellman): I don't really want to take 

 exception, but I want to understand what Dr Castle 

 said. He laid out the urbanization of agricultural land 

 as not being a problem. The shortage of water as 

 not being a problem in the '80s The lack of energy 

 being more significant than those, but not the substan- 

 tial problem, and the environmental side of it also not 

 being a significant problem. The only problem being 

 of creativity. Now, I assume you're talking in the 

 short-term, because in my mind each one is a signifi- 

 cant problem. 



(Dr. Castle): Yes, each and every one of them are 

 significant problems and they're going to continue to 



command our attention. What I was trying to do was 

 to look at the supply of agricultural products that 

 might be exported and look at it from that point of 

 view. And from that context, I certainly can't see the 

 conversion of agricultural land as being something 

 that's going to have a major impact on exports I 

 think that the water area is potentially a more impor- 

 tant one than the land area. I don't think that we're 

 going to have the growth in agricultural production 

 from increased irrigation in the future to the extent that 

 we had in the past 



On the other hand, I don't see a massive water 

 shortage for the nation as a whole With respect to 

 energy, my only comment there is it's going to affect 

 all commercial producing areas in about the same way 

 because we do have a world energy market. So any 

 country that's going to be exporting grain is going to 

 be faced with higher energy costs if they prevail in the 

 future. If you look at where our increased agricultural 

 production has come from in the past, it by and large 

 has come from increased yield per acre and from 

 increased productivity, and so if we don't keep new 

 techniques coming on line we don't maintain our basic 

 production plan and I think we're going to lose ground 

 competitively in the international field. And regardless 

 of what we do about our natural resources, land and 

 water, I think we'll lose ground if that doesn't occur. 



So, it is not to say that these are not important 

 problems. It is to say that if we're really concerned 

 about our competitive position in agriculture, we must 

 look at productivity, new technology, new discoveries, 

 and that's why investment in research, I think, is so 

 terribly important. 



(Governor Lamm): I would add one to that, by the 

 way. Also, look at birth control. I mean you can't 

 have supply side agriculture forever, 



(Dr. Castle): I focus my remarks almost entirely on 

 the supply side because I thought the world demand 

 side was coming up but. . . 



(Governor Lamm): But no one ever mentions the 

 other one, 



(Dr. Castle): No, you're quite right. But one of the 

 very encouraging things that has occurred, and I 

 believe Dr, Borlaug will comment on this, is that if you 

 look at what's happened to birth rates in Latin 

 America, in South Asia where agricultural production 

 has increased, it's an encouraging trend. The run- 

 away birth rates are occurring in those areas where 

 there has not been great breakthroughs in agricultural 

 production. For example, Africa and the Caribbean 

 and some places like that. 



(Governor Lamm): Dr. Borlaug, let's turn to you, it 



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