Chapter 26 

 Energy, fuels, and chemicals^ 



26-1 INTRODUCTION 



The United States uses about one-third of the total energy produced in the 

 world. Since the 1973 oil embargo, we have become aware that our energy 

 sources are not inexhaustible and they are no longer cheap. We are compelled, 

 therefore, to assess our energy needs for the future and to seek new sources. 



The amounts of energy consumed today are very large and are therefore 

 measured in millions of barrels per day oil equivalent or in quads. A barrel of oil 

 has a heat content of 5.55 million British thermal units (Btu) (Exxon Company 

 1978). One quad is equal to 10'^ Btu's or about 494,000 barrels of oil per day for 

 a year, as follows: 



1 quad = lO^lBtu = 493,644, barrels 



5.5 X 10^ Btu/barrel x 365 days 



The U.S. Department of Energy (1978a) has projected that by 1990 the total 

 consumption of energy by the United States could range from 100.7 to 109.4 

 quads per year. 



In another projection of demand (Exxon Company 1978), the United States is 

 forecast to increase its energy consumption from 38 million barrels per day oil 

 equivalent (just under 77 quads annually) in 1977 to 51 million barrels per day 

 oil equivalent (103 quads annually) by 1990. The assumptions made in this 

 projection include the following: the growth rate of the gross national product 

 will be just under 3.6 percent annually; environmental goals will be achieved at a 

 rate comparable with economic growth; and oil imports will be available at a 

 price that will increase at about the same rate as inflation. 



Historically, U.S. energy consumption per unit of gross national product has 

 been declining and forecasts of energy demand in the year 2000 have also been 

 steadily declining since 1972. Forecasts which were among the lowest when 

 made in 1972 are comparable to the highest forecasts made in 1978. The MITRE 

 Corporation (1981) concluded that an energy demand of 50.5 million barrels of 

 oil equivalent per day in the year 2000 is probably a high estimate. 



Oil is expected to remain the predominant fuel through 1990 (fig. 26-1). Oil 

 and gas are expected to supply a smaller proportion of total energy, 43 and 17 

 percent respectively in 1990, as compared with 48 and 27 percent in 1977, 

 although oil consumption is expected to increase from about 18 million to about 

 22 million barrels per day. Nuclear energy (which is limited to electric utility 

 use) may increase to 10 percent of our energy base. Hydroelectric and geother- 



'Text and illustrations in chapter 26 are taken, with minor revisions, from Karchesy and Koch 

 (1979). 



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