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10 



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I 



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Chapter 29 



2 - 



1 1 r 



PREDICTED HARDWOOD LUMBER 

 PRODUCTION IN U.S 



1976 



1961 



1966 



1991 



1996 



2001 



2006 



Figure 29-1 7. — Predicted hardwood lumber production in the United States, under three 

 sets of assumed conditions, as follows: 

 Conditions A. — Status quo. Under these conditions price and wage rates are as- 

 sumed to increase at 3 percent per year, while stumpage prices increase at 2 

 percent. Interest rate prevailing is 8 percent. 

 Conditions B. — An optimistic view. Conditions assumed the same as in condition A, 

 except price of lumber is assumed to increase at 5 percent per year, rather than 

 3 percent per year. 

 Conditions C. — A pessimistic view. Assumes the high rate of inflation of 1980 and 

 1981 will continue until 2005 and that lumber prices and wages increase at 10 

 percent per year while stumpage prices increase 5 percent per year, interest 

 rate prevailing is 16 percent. 

 (Drawing after Luppold 1981, p. 93). 



