LONG-TERM CLIMATIC AND OCEANOGRAPHIC CYCLES 



less-pronounced oceanic changes that might 

 reduce the planktonic food supply of noc- 

 turnally active, burrow-nesting seabirds. In 

 such instances, the effects might also be a 

 breeding failure for only one or two seasons; 

 in all probability such events occur, but 

 whether they are as likely to be detected by us 

 is problematical. However, the populations of 

 most seabirds are probably already adapted 

 to survive short-term crises of this type be- 

 cause, having long adult life spans, reproduc- 

 tive adults that fail to raise young one year 

 may mostly live to succeed in doing so in the 

 next or succeeding year, when the oceanic 

 "anomaly" has disappeared. What consti- 

 tutes an "anomaly" will be considered again 

 shortly. 



A third critical condition for seabirds may 

 be local or widespread, temporary or final, or 

 some combination of these. A single local 

 spill, or outfall, of a chemical pollutant will be 

 short term if we can take steps to alleviate the 

 consequences or stem the flow. Alternately, 

 we may consider it to be long term if we take 

 the view that it is one additional act of vio- 

 lence resulting from the "progress" of Indus- 

 trial Man, and that it is never going to shift 

 into reverse gear. We may say that the effect 

 on seabird populations of spills of oil products 

 or chemical pollutants in coastal waters of a 

 region will be a "final solution" for any that 

 become wholly extinct before the oil wells go 

 dry or the industries fail. On the other hand, 

 the effect will have been merely a perturba- 

 tion of the population if the species survives 

 and outlives these activities. Recent upturns 

 in populations of peregrine falcons (Falco 

 peregrinus) and pelicans (Pelecanus sp.) in cer- 

 tain places where environmental controls 

 have been enacted give us hope that crises of 

 several years' duration can be withstood by at 

 least those species that once were common in 

 relation to their respective food sources or 

 available safe breeding habitats. The really 

 critical features to document are the means 

 whereby abandoned breeding sites are reoccu- 

 pied and the time it takes. 



It must never be forgotten that we know al- 

 most nothing about the ecology of subadult or 

 nonreproductive adult seabirds during the 

 years they are at sea unconfined by member- 

 ship in a breeding unit and that we know al- 

 most nothing about the activities of pelagic 



seabirds in the nonbreeding season. These 

 birds may be far from land and hard to study, 

 but what happens during those phases of 

 their lives is basic to the composition of the 

 colony and condition of the birds when breed- 

 ing. A start would be to learn everything that 

 is known and is being discovered about the 

 oceans by oceanographers and, thus fore- 

 armed, go looking for the seabirds with cer- 

 tain questions clearly in mind. 



Detecting the Effects 

 of Long-term Cycles 



A scientist's working life lasts only a few 

 decades, and few studies of seabirds by a 

 single author or agency have been continued 

 for longer than 5-10 years on any one prob- 

 lem. Further, while we as individuals may live 

 to be equally active in a certain field of re- 

 search 20 years hence, our collective con- 

 science and collective muscle consist of 

 several levels of government that tend to ex- 

 hibit 4- or 5-year changes of direction and 

 priorities. Certainly, the civil service may live 

 on as an inertial recorder of collective experi- 

 ence. Certainly, too, those who live under one 

 form or another of dictatorship or, as in some 

 Canadian provinces, where conservative pat- 

 terns of voting occur, may experience a conti- 

 nuity of research and development and con- 

 servation policies that exceed the 4- to 5-year 

 turnaround pattern that is most common. 

 Yet, even these more continuous systems may 

 come to an end quite suddenly because of eco- 

 nomic or political happenstance. 



The point of this digression is to show that 

 seabird ornithologists must not rely on gov- 

 ernment programs to provide continuous data 

 over a long period of years not, at least, in 

 most countries. Monitoring the biological cir- 

 cumstances of seabirds is not the same as re- 

 cording the temperature regularly by machine 

 at a weather station, since this activity is un- 

 likely to be terminated unless the society col- 

 lapses altogether. We may know that in some 

 countries the amateur naturalist exists in 

 such numbers that records of seabirds will 

 continue to be made whatever the circum- 

 stances. Nevertheless, planning of censuses 

 that will be repeated every 10 years is best as- 

 sured if government and career biologists 



