18 



TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP. 



mercial timber tracts, in many cases already culled of their 

 choicest trees. A very large part of the once heavily timbered 

 land, about 20,000,000 acres, is now fire-swept and devastated 

 Sfiud plain and swamp, much of it with little or no promise of 

 reproduction. 



The original white pine stand of the Lake States has been 

 estimated by Dr. B. E. Fernow at not less than 350,000,000,000 

 board feet. After less than a century of lumbering, fire, and 

 settlement, only about 8,000,000,000 feet of white and Norway 

 pine remain, largely in Minnesota. In 1918 the reported cut 

 of white pine in the Lake States exceeded a billion feet. An- 

 other decade will see the practical exhaustion of their com- 

 mercial supplies of white pine. 



Lower Peninsula of Michigan. The depletion of commercial 

 timber has proceeded furthest in the Lower Peninsula of Michi- 

 gan, where less than a million (probably not much over half a 

 million) acres of hardwoods and hemlock remain. The hun- 

 dreds of large sawmills that once operated had fallen off in 

 1918 to about 45 that cut more than 1,000,000 board feet 

 apiece. The number is rapidly becoming smaller, and within 

 five years there will hardly be a half dozen large mills left. 

 The exhaustion of the remaining old-growth stands will mark 

 the end, among other valuable species, of the highly prized 

 " Lower Michigan hard maple," long reputed to be the best 

 in the Lake States. From then on whatever lumber is cut will 

 come mainly from farm woodlots, in small amounts and sizes, 

 and of poorer grade. 



Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. In the 

 adjacent forest areas of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula 

 of Michigan the case is better. In 1908 the Bureau of Corpo- 

 rations estimated the timberland at about 10,329,000 acres, 

 with a stand of 65 billion feet. During the last 12 years 

 probably 30 billion board feet in lumber has been removed. 

 This would leave only 35 billion, enough at the present rate 

 of cutting to last 15 years. There can be no doubt, however, 

 that there is much more timber than this. The 1908 esti- 

 mates were too conservative. There is reason to believe that 

 the timberland still amounts to 4 million acres in upper Michi- 

 gan and 2 million in Wisconsin, and that the total merchant- 

 able stand is at least 48 billion feet. This would insure a con- 

 tinued supply, at the present rate of cut, for about 20 years. 

 This rate will not, of course, continue, but will decrease as 

 successive mills saw out. The rate of cut is considerably 

 heavier in Wisconsin than in the Upper Peninsula. The larger 

 number of Wisconsin mills and the considerably smaller stand 

 of timber indicate a much quicker falling off in the cut and 

 an earlier termination of the supply there than in upper 

 Michigan. 



In Wisconsin, assuming a diminishing rate of depletion, the 

 annual lumber cut will be likely to fall off within 10 years to 

 75 per cent, in 15 years to 40 per cent, and in 20 years to 16 

 per cent of the present cut, and in 25 years the timber will be 

 practically gone. Cutting for other purposes than lumber will 

 add appreciably to the amount of timber taken out. Further- 

 more the pressure of an increasing demand, by stimulating 

 the rate of cut both at the big mills and at numerous smaller 

 mills, which will probably operate, as at present, in small 

 patches of timber, will very likely hasten the final exhaustion 

 of the timber. All things considered, it is doubtful if there 

 will be any appreciable amount of timber left in commercial 

 holdings in Wisconsin at the end of 20 years. Growth does 

 not enter into the computation at all, unless a radical change 

 is made in the direction of efficient fire protection and the 

 :ipi>lication of forestry. 



In upper Michigan the stand will last considerably longer. 

 Here 60 per cent as many mills operate in twice the timber 

 enough, in fact, to last 40 years at the present rate of cutting 

 for lumber only. Some new operations are already contem- 



plated, however, and the cut for lumber and other products 

 will doubtless increase within the next few years. One prin- 

 cipal holder is reported to have estimated the life of the stand 

 at 25 or 30 years. 



Minnesota. Timber conditions in Minnesota differ widely 

 from those in Wisconsin and Michigan. The Wisconsin lumber 

 cut for 1918 was 85 per cent hardwoods and hemlock, while that 

 of Minnesota was 91 per cent white pine (which includes also a 

 considerable amount of Norway pine and other species in the 

 lower grades). Less than 5 per cent of the reported cut was of 

 hardwoods. 



The timbered area of Minnesota was estimated by the Bureau 

 of Corporations in 190S at about 5,651,000 acres, and the stand 

 at 23,200,000,000 board feet, 81 per cent of which was softwoods. 

 A recent estimate by the Minnesota State forester places the 

 softwood stand at 11,450,000,000 board feet, of which 41 per cent 

 is white and Norway pine, 17.5 per cent jack pine, 2,4 per cent 

 spruce, balsam, and cedar, and 17.5 per cent tamarack. The 

 tamarack, which has been the greatest hewed-tie resource of 

 the region, has practically all been killed by the larch sawfly, 

 and must be salvaged soon if at all. 



The pine forests of Minnesota have been thoroughly culled 

 of their best material, and production now runs heavily to box 

 lumber. 



The number of mills operating in this region is being re- 

 duced rapidly. Within the last three or four years at least 

 four of the large mills have burned, and these will probably 

 not be replaced. Five have recently cut out, and two have 

 only a year's supply. This means a decrease of 30 per cent 

 in the total cut of the State and of 33 per cent in the cut 

 of the big pine mills. The annual cut of the remaining mills 

 will aggregate at least 600,000,000 feet. These mills depend for 

 the great bulk of their cut upon white and Norway pine, the 

 remaining supplies of which are estimated by the Minnesota 

 State forester at 4,700,000,000 board feet. This will not last 

 much more than seven years at the present rate of cutting. If 

 the estimate of supply is increased by one-third, the period of 

 operation would be 10 years at the present rate. As the mills 

 exhaust their supplies, however, the rate of cutting will diminish. 



Condition of the remaining supplies. The stands considered 

 above are those which are being or could be logged on a large 

 scale to large mills mills of 10 million board feet or more 

 annual capacity. Such mills now supply about 90 per cent 

 of the lumber produced in the Lake States. Their holdings, 

 even though culled, are almost wholly, of old-growth timber of 

 superior quality as compared with second growth. 



These concentrated commercial stands, aggregating about 

 63 billion board feet, contain about 57 per cent of the total 

 stand of timber in the Lake States, which amounts to prob- 

 ably 110 billion board feet. Of this total about 30 per cent 

 (33J billion feet) is widely scattered in farm wood lots, while 

 13 per cent (about 14 j billion feet) is in the swamps, jack 

 pine and scrub hardwood plains, aspen and birch stands, and 

 cut-over lands in the North. The timber in these stands is 

 far below that of the commercial stands in quality. The 

 greater part is second growth. It is smaller, more lirnby, and 

 much of it has been badly damaged by fire. Furthermore, it 

 is largely in small, scattered tracts unsuited for efficient large- 

 scale operations. In addition, about 19 million acres bear a 

 cordwood stand of about 113 million cords below saw-timber 

 size. If the lumber stand also is reduced to cords, the total 

 stand in the Lake States is 630 million cords, or 50,584 million 

 cubic feet. 



THE ANNUAL DRAIN UPON THE FOREST. 



I.umlter cut compared with total cut. The normal lumber 

 cut of about 3J billion board feet forms less than half of the 

 total volume of wood cut annually in the Lake States for all 

 purposes. The lumber cut is the equivalent of about 770 



