THE PROBLEM OF THE FUTURE 7 



in the father. Why ? because he gets low wages in that 

 trade. You might think, possibly, that an ' unhealthy ' 

 trade should mean high wages. Well, it does in one or 

 two very exceptional instances, but in the bulk of cases 

 it means this : that the mortality is high in that trade, 

 because it can be followed by puny, unhealthy, and stupid 

 men. Low wages are paid to such men. Low wages, 

 due to poor physique and mentality of the father, are one 

 of the chief sources of the mother's employment. All 

 these are points which we can statistically demonstrate. 

 Now what has become of our simple problem, the higher 

 death-rate of the child associated with alcoholism in the 

 mother ? Poor physique in the father, a so-called 

 unhealthy trade, low wages, employment of the mother, 

 alcoholism in the mother, are all associated together. 

 To which of these factors, or in what proportions to all 

 of them, shall we attribute the increased death-rate in 

 the offspring ? Is it a toxic effect of alcohol in the 

 mother, a toxic effect of ' unhealthy trade ' of the father, 

 or want of nutriment and space due to low wages ? 

 Is it absence of the mother owing to her employment, 

 or is it carelessness owing to her alcoholism ? Is it 

 after all an hereditary effect due to the father's poor 

 physique, or even to the mother's coming of a physically 

 degenerate stock ? Which of all these possible sources 

 is the true origin of the increased death-rate, or is it due 

 to combination of these and possibly other factors ? 

 I do not say such problems cannot be solved. I think 

 we shall solve them. But they need an analysis, a calculus, 

 as complex as any which has been developed to deal with 

 physical phenomena ; they need as close a power of 

 observation and as careful a record as any problem in 

 biology. General theories of society are no use, verbal 



