283 

 THE OUTLOOK FOR CATTLE PRICES. 



The outlook for a term of years often constitutes an important feature 

 upon entering into a niew enterprise. 



A question arising in the mind of onie contemplating the establishment 

 of a feeding station is, what will be the future demand for and price of cat- 

 tle? It is a well known and too frequently illustrated fact that cattle must 

 be bought at a reasonable price -as well as fed right, if a profit is to accrue 

 from the operation. It is well for the buyer and feeder to have in mind 

 the general facts so far as they may be learned from statistics. 



The number of cattle in the United States has decreased rapidly dur- 

 ing the past six years. The causes which brought about this condition 

 were varied. The price of stock lor about five years gradually fell, and 

 a lack of activity was the common complaint from the market. This de- 

 pression was simultaneous with depressions in other commercial pro- 

 ducts. At the same time the price paid for sheep and hogs fell and their 

 numbers decreased. Breeding stock was sold off very close, and t'he 

 United States today contains the smallest percentage of cattle in propor- 

 tion to the population which it has for many years. 



Against the facts leannied from statistics must be placed the market 

 demand for younger stock. A much larger number of two-year-old 

 cattle are now being demanded by and placed upon the market than there 

 was in 1892 and during earlier years. T\vo-year-old cattle can be pro- 

 duced in iwo-fthirds of the time which is required to rear three-year-olds, 

 and in one-half the time in which four-year-olds can be placed upon the 

 market. This earlier maturing beef will account for only a small fraction 

 of the decrease in t'he number of beef cattle. The export or foreign trade 

 in live cattle has increased more than one-third during the past five years, 

 and our trade in fresh beef has increased at about the same rate. The 

 niajoir part of this trade is with Great Britain, a fact which indicates that 

 it will probably remain stable without marked increase or decrease in the 

 future. Increasing OUT foreign trade is a possibility which can only be 

 hoped for by the introduction of thoroughly inspected meats into Ger- 

 many and France, the prospects for which are not flattering at the present 

 time. South American countries are competing to a certain extent, but 

 eve seriously handicapped by having much higher shipping rates to the 

 English markets than we have. 



Australia devotes her attention almost exclusively to mutton pro- 

 duction. 



Russia will not prove a serious competitor in the near future probably, 

 from the fact that she has no large packing concerns, nor rigid govern- 

 ment system of inspection, both of which it requires time to establish. 

 Its peasantry are probably not capable of feeding and breeding stock of a 

 sufficiently high quality to compete in the European markets. 



The market value of cattle is dependent to a considerable degree upon 



