86 THE YEAR. 



east side of Great Britain, is a maximum, and where, 

 taking the average of the year, it is equal to the ab- 

 sorption of twice, or at least once and a half, the 

 quantity of moisture that falls during the same period, 

 and only upon plains of some extent between the 

 mountains and the sea, that those general observations 

 can be made : for at other seasons, and where the 

 surface is very varied, there are so many temporary 

 and local circumstances that come into action, that 

 each place must depend upon separate observations ; 

 and, in the present state of our knowledge, he who is 

 most " weather wise,'* for one, is probably most at 

 fault for another. We shall, therefore, defer any 

 further hints that we have to offer until we can blend 

 them with notices of some of the characteristic produc- 

 tions of the seasons, and close this part, which, for 

 all its length, we fear will be found very imperfect, by 

 one short precautionary paragraph. 



There is nothing more common than to predict the 

 future state of the season from some single appearance 

 in the early part of it ; and yet there is nothing more 

 unphilosophical or fallacious. An early blossom, an 

 early bee, or an early swallow, or the early appear- 

 ance of any other production of nature, is no evidence 

 whatever of the kind of weather that is to come, 

 though the belief that it is so is both very general and 

 very obstinate. The appearance of these things is 

 the effect of the weather, not the cause ; and it is 

 what we may call an external effect, that is, it does 

 not enter into the chain of causation. The weather 

 of to-day must always have some influence upon the 

 weather of to-morrow ; but its effect will not be altered 



