ARBUTHNOT. 51 



Clamours of the Sharpers, I do not m^^ch regard it, since they are 

 a sort of People the World is not bound to provide for 



...It is impossible for a Die, with snch determin'd force and di- 

 rection, not to fall on such a determin'd side, and therefore I call that 

 Chance which is nothing but want of Art ; 



The Reader may here observe the Force of Numbers, which can 

 be successfully applied, even to those things, which one would imagine 

 are subject to no Rules. There are very few things which we know, 

 which are not capable of Ijeing reduc'd to a Mathematical Reasoning; 

 and when they cannot, it's a sign our Knowledge of them is very small 

 and confus'd; and where a mathematical reasoning can be had, it's as 

 great folly to make use of any other, as to grope for a thing in the 

 dark, when you have a Candle standing by you. I believe the Cal- 

 culation of the Quantity of Probability might be improved to a very 

 useful and pleasant Speculation, and applied to a great many Events 

 which are accidental, besides those of Games ; 



...There is likewise a Calculation of the Quantity of Probability 

 founded on Experience, to be made use of in Wagers about any thing; 

 it is odds, if a Woman is with Child, but it shall be a Boy; and if 

 you would know the just odds, you must consider the Proportion in 

 the Bills that the Males bear to the Females: The Yearlv Bills of 

 Mortality are observed to bear such Proportion to the live People as 

 1 to 30, or 2Q; therefore it is an even Wager, that one out of thir- 

 teen dies within a Year (which may be a good reason, tho' not the 

 true, of that foolish piece of Superstition), because, at this rate, if 1 

 out of 26 dies, you are no loser. It is but 1 to 18 if you meet a 

 Parson in the Street, that he proves to be a Non-Juror, because there 

 is but 1 of 36 that are such. 



83. Pages 1 to 25 contain a translation of Huygens's treatise 

 including the five problems which he left unsolved. Respecting 

 these our author says 



The Calculus of the preceding Problems is left out by Mons. Huy- 

 gens, on purpose that the ingenious Reader may have the satisfiiction of 

 applying the former method himself; it is in most of them more labo- 

 rious than difficult : for Example, I have pitch'd upon the second and 

 third, because the rest can be solv'd after the same Method. 



Our author solves the second problem in the first of the 

 three senses which it may bear according to the Ars Conjectandi, 



4—2 



