COXDORCET. 371 



688. It may be interesting to give Cordorcet's own enun- 

 ciations. 



I. ...soit TF^ la probabilite que ni e ni i n'obtiendront sur les deux 

 autres opinions la pluralite, . . . page 95. 



II. ... W/ exprimant la probabilite que e et i n'ont pas sur v la 

 pluralite exigee, sans qu'il soit necessaire, pour rejeter un terme, que 

 I'un des deux ait cette pluralite sur I'autre,... page 100. 



III. . . . TF'^, c'est-a-dire, la probabilite que v obtiendra sur i et e la 

 pluralite exigee, . . . page 1 02. 



lY. ...TF/^, c'est-a-dire, la probabilite que v surpassera un des 

 deux i ou e, et pourra cependant etre egal a I'autre,... page 102. 



Of these enunciations I., III., and TV. present no difficulty; 

 II. is obscure in itself and is rendered more so by the fact that 

 we naturally suppose at first that it ought not to mean the same 

 as IV. But, as we have said, the same meaning is to be given 

 to II. as to lY. 



Before Condorcet takes these problems individually he thus 

 states them together on his page 95 : 



...nous chercherons la probabilite joour un nombre donne de Yotans, 

 ou que ni e uii ne I'emportent sur v d'une i^luralite exigee, ou que e et i 

 I'emportent chacun sur v de cette pluralite sans I'emporter Tun sur 

 I'autre, ou enfin que v I'emporte a la fois sur e et sur i de cette pluralite. 



Thus he seems to contemplate three problems. The last clause 

 ow enfin ... pluralite gives the enunciation of the third problem 

 distinctly. The clause ou que ni . . . exigee may perhaps be taken 

 as the enunciation of the second problem. The clause ou que ... 

 Vautre will then be the enunciation of the first problem. 



In the Preliminary Discourse the problems are stated together 

 in the following words on page XLIV : 



...qu'on cherche...ou la probabilite d'ayoir la pluralite d'un avis sur 

 les deux,..., ou la probabilite que, soit les deux autres, soit un seul des 

 deux, n' auront pas la pluralite ;... 



In these words the problems are enunciated in the order 

 III., IL, I. ; and knowing what the problems are we can see that 

 the words are not inapplicable. But if we had no other way of 

 testing the meaning we might have felt uncertain as to what 



problems II. and I. were to be. 



24—2 



