386 CONDORCET. 



men, but takes into account the probability that they will err in 

 their estimate of the decisions of the inferior tribunal. But there 

 would be no advantage gained in giving a fuller investigation of 

 Condorcet's method, especially as Condorcet seems to intimate on 

 his page 216 that the following is the chief result : 



...ce qui conduit en general a cette conclusion tres-importante, que 

 tout Tribunal dont les jugemens sont rendus a une petite pluralite, 

 relativement au nombre total des Yotans, doit inspirer peu de confiance, 

 et que ses decisions n'ont qu'une tres-petite probabilite. 



Such an obvious result requires no elaborate calculation to 

 support it. 



709. In the second method of treating the first question Con- 

 dorcet does not suppose any tribunal composed of truly enlightened 

 men to review the decisions of those who are less enlightened. 



But he assumes that the probability of the correctness of each vote 



1 

 lies between ^ and 1 ; and then he proposes to apply some of the 



formulse which he obtained in the solutions of the preliminary 

 problems. Nothing of any practical value can be extracted from 

 this part of the book. Condorcet himself says on his page c, 



II auroit 6te curieux de faire a la suite des decisions de quelque 

 Tribunal existant, I'application de ce dernier principe, mais il ne nous 

 a ete possible de nous procurer les donnees necessaires pour cette appli- 

 cation. D'ailleurs les calculs auroient et6 tres-longs, et la necessite 

 d'en supprimer les resultats, s'ils avoient et6 trop defavorables, n'etoit 

 pas propre a donner le courage de s'y livrer. 



710. Condorcet now proceeds to the second question which we 

 have seen in Art. 695 that he proposed to consider, namely the 

 numerical value of the probability which ought to be obtained 

 in various cases. This occupies pages 223 — 21^1 of the Essay ; 

 the corresponding part of the Preliminary Discourse occupies 

 pages cii — c XXVIII. This discussion is interesting, but not of 

 much practical value. Condorcet notices an opinion enunciated 

 by Buffon. Buffon says that out of 10,000 persons one will die in 

 the course of a day ; but practically the chance of dying in the 



