396 CONDORCET. 



727. The following paragraph appears very remarkable when 

 we reflect how soon the expectations it contains were falsified by 

 the French Kevolution. 



Premier Principe. Nous supposerons d'ahord que I'ordre sui^ant 

 lequel les dernieres mutations se sont succedees, sera indefiniment con- 

 tinue. 



Le motif qui nous a fait adopter ce principe, est la grande proba- 

 bility que nous avons moins de grands changemens, nioins de grandes 

 revolutions a attendre pour I'avenir, qu'il n'y en a eu dans le pass6 : le 

 progres des lumieres en tout genre et dans toutes les parties de I'Europe, 

 I'esprit de moderation et de paix qui y regno, I'espece de m6pris ou le 

 Machiavelisnie commence a tomber, semblent nous assurer que les guerres 

 et les revolutions deviendront a I'avenir moins frequentes j ainsi le 

 principe que nous adoptons, en memo temps qu'il rend les calculs et les 

 observations plus faciles, a de plus I'avantage d'etre plus exact. 



728. The memoir is neither important nor interesting, and it 

 is disfigured by the contradiction and obscurity which we have 

 noticed in Condorcet's Essay. Condorcet says that he will begin by 

 examining the case in which the event producing the right neces- 

 sarily happens in a certain length of time, as for example, when 

 the right accrues on every succession to the property ; and then he 

 will consider the case in which the event does not necessarily hap- 

 pen, as, for example, when the right accrues on a sale of the pro- 

 perty, or on a particular kind of succession. He then gives three 

 methods for the first case, and in direct contradiction to what he 

 has said, it will be found that only his first method applies to the 

 case in which the event producing the right necessarily happens. 



729. We will give the results of the second of Condorcet's 

 methods, though not in his manner. 



Let us suppose for simplicity that the sum to be paid if 

 the event happens is one pound ; let c represent the present worth 

 of one pound due at the end of a year ; let x be the probability 

 that the event will happen in the course of one year. Then xc 

 represents the value of that part of the right which arises from the 

 first year, x(^ the value of that part which arises from the second 

 year, xc^ the value of that part which arises from the third year, 

 and so on. Thus the value of the whole right is 



