410 CONDOECET. 



which Condorcet considers and says, Tant de passions, d'interets 

 divers et de circonstances compliquent les questions relatives a 

 ces objets, qu'elles sont presque toujours insolubles. Theorie...des 

 Froh. page cxxxviii. 



Poisson names Condorcet expressly; with respect to his Prelimi- 

 nary Discourse, he says, ... ou sont developpees avec soin les con- 

 siderations propres a montrer I'utilite de ce genre de recherches. 

 And after referring to some of Laplace's investigations Poisson 

 adds, ... il est juste de dire que c'est a Condorcet quest due I'idee 

 ingenieuse de faire dependre la solution, du princijDe de Bayes, en 

 considerant successivement la culpabilite et I'innocence de I'accuse, 

 comme une cause inconnue du jugement prononce, qui est alors le 

 fait observe, duquel il s'agit de deduire la probabilite de cette 

 cause. Recherches sur la Proh. . . . page 2. 



We have already referred to John Stuart Mill, see Art. QGo. 

 One sentence of his may perhaps not have been specially aimed 

 at Condorcet, but it may well be so applied. Mr Mill says, " It is 

 obvious, too, that even when the probabilities are derived from ob- 

 servation and experiment, a very slight improvement in the data, 

 by better observations, or by taking into fuller consideration the 

 special circumstances of the case, is of more use than the most 

 elaborate application of the calculus to probabilities founded on the 

 data in their jDrevious state of inferiority." Logic, Vol. ii. page 65. 

 Condorcet seems really to have fancied that valuable results could 

 be obtained from any data, however imperfect, by using formulae 

 with an adequate supply of signs of integration. 



