1 82 RECOLLECTIONS OF FORTY YEARS. 



After having laid down this first and very impor- 

 tant consideration, the Statistical Commission pursued 

 their task and prepared a voluminous report, the work 

 of M. Levasseur, whose scientific authority was a sure 

 guarantee against his giving reins to his fancy. The 

 plan which he adopted was proof against all criticism, 

 as he first sought to determine, by an examination of 

 the official returns of all the States, what tonnage 

 would take the route of the interoceanic canal. After 

 long and careful calculation, based upon the returns 

 for 1876, he estimated this traffic at 72,000,000, or 

 4,830,000 tons of merchandise. Taking into account 

 the annual increase in commerce, which for the years 

 1860-1876 was six per cent., he arrived at the con- 

 clusion that, with a much slower increase, the tonnage 

 would reach 7,249,000 tons by the time of the pro- 

 bable opening of the canal in 1890. This was the 

 minimum traffic of the canal as estimated by the 

 commission, and these figures are in no way sur- 

 prising when the Pacific railway carries more than a 

 million tons, while the trade of Cuba exceeds 2,000,000 

 tons, and California alone produces 1,200,000 tons of 

 grain. Our figures are well within the mark, I am 

 sure, and they do not include, moreover, the trans- 

 port of passengers, nor the large and small coasting 

 trade, which, at present quite insignificant, will de- 

 velop with surprising rapidity in the Gulf of Mexico 

 and the "West Indies. 



The above-mentioned tonnage will show what an 



