586 



SCIENTIFIC THOUGHT. 



24. 

 Criticism of 

 pretension 

 of statistics. 



and Drobisch^ have long ago reduced to their proper 

 measure the pretensions of statistics, and it is now 

 generally admitted that in the sciences dealing with 

 human nature and society, as in those which inves- 

 tigate purely physical phenomena, observations, figures, 

 and measurements rarely if ever suffice to establish a 

 valid generalisation ; but that, if such be suggested by 

 other processes of thought, notably through attentive re- 

 flection on, and analysis of, single and accessible cases, 

 statistics supply the indispensable material by which 



men as determined by circum- 

 stances : in fact, all expectation of 

 good from education and all the 

 work of history are based upon 

 the conviction that the will may 

 be influenced by growth of insight, 

 by ennoblement of feeling, and by 

 improvement of the external con- 

 ditions of life. On the other side, 

 a consideration of freedom itself 

 would teach us that the very 

 notion is repugnant to common- 

 sense if it does not include sus- 

 ceptibility to the worth of motives, 

 and that the freedom of willing 

 can by no means signify absolute 

 capacity of carrying out what is 

 willed." And, further, he remarks 

 on " the extreme overhastiness 

 with which the statistical myth 

 has been built up from deductions 

 which cannot be relied upon. We 

 have yet to obtain from exacter 

 investigations the true material 

 for more trustworthy conclusions 

 — material whicli should take the 

 place of the statistical myth above 

 referred to." 



^ Before Lotze, and as early as 

 1849, M. W. Drobisch, the Her- 

 bartian, had reviewed Quetelet's 

 Memoir, 'Sur la Statistique morale,' 

 &c. ; and later (1867), after the 

 publication of A. Wagner's work, he 

 came back to the subject in an im- 



portant tract, ' Die moralische Stat- 

 istik und die menschliche Willens- 

 freiheit,' which should be read by 

 every one who desires to form just 

 views on the subject. " In all 

 such facts," says Drobisch, "there 

 are reflected not natural laws pure 

 and simple, to which man must 

 submit as to destiny, but at the 

 same time the moral conditions of 

 society, which are determined by 

 the mighty influences of family 

 life, of the school, the Church, 

 of legislation, and are, therefore, 

 quite capable of improvement by 

 the will of man " (Zeitsch. fiir 

 exacte Philos.,' vol. iv. p. 329). 

 After all that has been said by 

 Quetelet, Buckle, and others, the 

 words of Schiller (' Wallenstein's 

 Tod,' ii. 3) still remain the best 

 statement of the problem : — 



" Des Mensclieu Thaten uml Gedankeii, 



wisst ! 

 Sind uiclit wie Meeres blind bewegte 



Wellen. 

 Die inure Welt, sein Microcosmus, ist 

 Der tiefe Schacht, aus deni sie ewig 



quellen. 

 Sie sind notliwendig, wie des Baumes 



Fniclit ; 

 Sie kann der Zufall gaukelnd nicht 



verwandeln, 

 Habicli des Mensclien Kern erst unter- 



sucht, 

 So weiss ich audi sein WoUen und seiu 



Handeln." 



