OBSERVATION. 



tendencies to error exist, and fallacious opinions arise in 

 consequence. 



It is exceedingly rare to find persons who can with / 

 perfect fairness estimate and register facts for and against/ 

 their own peculiar views and theories. Among uncultivated 

 observers the tendency to remark favourable and forget 

 unfavourable events is so great, that no reliance can be 

 placed upon their supposed observations. Thus arises the 

 enduring fallacy that the changes of the weather coincide 

 in some way or other with the changes of the moon, 

 although exact and impartial registers give no countenance 

 to the fact. The whole race of prophets and quacks live 

 upon the overwhelming effect of one success, compared 

 with hundreds of failures which are unmentioned .and 

 forgotten. As Bacon says, * Men mark when they hit, and 

 never mark when they miss/ We should do well to bear 

 in mind the ancient story, quoted by Bacon, of one who 

 in Pagan times was shown a temple with a picture of all 

 the persons who had been saved from shipwreck, after 

 paying their vows. When asked whether he did not now 

 acknowledge the power of the gods, ' Aye/ he answered ; 

 ' but where are they painted that were drowned after their 

 vows ? ' 



If indeed we could estimate the amount of lias existing 

 in any particular observations, it might be treated like one 

 of the forces of the problem, and the true course of ex- 

 ternal nature might still be rendered apparent. But the 

 feelings of an observer are usually too indeterminate, so 

 that whenever there is reason to suspect any considerable 

 amount of bias, rejection is the only safe course. As re- 

 gards facts casually registered in past times, the capacities 

 and impartiality of the observer are so little known that 

 we should spare no pains to replace these statements by a 

 new appeal to nature. An indiscriminate medley of truth 

 and absurdity, such as Francis Bacon has collected in his 



