28 THE AMES FORESTER 



no commission would be able to change the price schedule with 

 any degree of facility; and the establishment of fixed prices 

 would bring in unprecedented conditions which can scarcely 

 be more than guessed at. In times of business activity exces- 

 sively large amounts of lumber would be demanded, because 

 there would be no rise in prices to discourage its use ; in times 

 of depression very little would be called for because there 

 would be no lowering of prices to stimulate demand. How 

 could the supply be adjusted to such a widely varying demand? 

 Even under present conditions, there is a great waste in the 

 industry, because so much capital is idle during slack seasons, 

 and it seems that this waste would be much greater under the 

 circumstances suggested. 



It might be suggested that the commission could vary prices 

 according to changing industrial conditions, but even if this 

 were possible, it is very doubtful if it would be a wise policy 

 because of the uncertainty and uneasiness it would bring into 

 the situation. It seems that prices fixed by the commission 

 would tend to remain the same for considerable periods, per- 

 haps even for years, somewhat like the rates fixed by the In- 

 terstate Commerce Commission. 



Lumber prices will certainly show a strong upward tendency 

 for a long time, and as prices gradually rise consumption will 

 decline and waste will be reduced. The higher prices will have 

 a conserving tendency. It is interesting to speculate as to 

 what would happen if a Government commission were regulat- 

 ing prices. As stated above, there would be a strong tendency 

 for such a commission to fix a certain level of prices and ad- 

 here to it, perhaps for years. The changing relations of supply 

 and demand would present no just ground for altering the 

 schedule unless there were also increasing costs of some kind. 

 Now with the growth in the population of the country the de- 

 mand for timber will certainly increase; and if prices were to 

 remain about the same, might not our timber supply be very 

 speedily exhausted? Would there be any incentive for timber 

 owners to preserve their timber for the future? Certainly the 

 expectation of a future rise in stumpage values is the chief rea- 

 son why many timber owners are not clearing their land now ; 

 and if this hope of future profit were taken away, if holders 



