24 THE AMES FORESTER 



of their lands due to increased growth. It may be said, however, 

 that most investors in timber land do not figure on an increase in 

 value due to increase in volume of mature or semi-mature stands, 

 but are perfectly satisfied if the present growth does not ma- 

 terially decrease in quality or in amount until such time as it 

 is cut. 



The principal factor upon which investors in Western stump- 

 age based their hopes of large profits, was the steadily increas- 

 ing price of lumber and a corresponding rise of standing timber. 

 The early purchaser of stumpage had ever reason to believe that 

 lumber would continue to soar in price, since each year saw a 

 diminishing reserve and an increased output. A study of past 

 lumber prices shows a steady rise over a long period. There 

 were short periods during depressions when lumber quotations 

 remained stationary or even declined slightly, but normal condi- 

 tions were quickly resumed with their passing. Favorably lo- 

 cated stumpage, however, had never declined in price. Relatively 

 speaking, it had never caught up with the lumber manufactured 

 from it. It had constantly mounted to higher levels, and in 

 so doing had made millions for fortunate investors. 



Conditions in the lumber business have undergone a radical 

 change in the past decade. Lumber prices have not risen as 

 anticipated. In fact, for most species they have actually de- 

 creased since 1907. The decade prior to this date were boom 

 times in the timber business in the West. Money was plentiful 

 and timber was cheap and operators and investors bought up 

 all the available stumpage in their buying spheres at low prices. 

 As timber became scarcer, choice tracts increased in value, and 

 by 1907 prices very nearly approaching the true value of the 

 stumpage were paid in many regions in the West. With the 

 panic of 1907, buying stopped as suddenly as it began. Sellers 

 were holding for high prices which the buyers have been unwilling 

 to pay. 



The average mill run selling price of all lumber manufactured 

 in the United States in 1906 was $16.54. In 1915 it was $14.04, 

 which indicates a loss of $2.50 per thousand feet in ten years. 

 Douglas fir dropped $3.61 per thousand feet ; white pine, $ .88 ; 

 spruce, $ .75; western cedar, $2.02; redwood, $3.10. The only 

 increases were in western pine which advanced $ .31 and sugar 

 pine which rose $1.29. The decreased selling prices indicate a 

 decreased value of stumpage. Timber purchased in the days 

 when stumpage was cheap and estimates low could stand the 

 slump fairly well, but that bought at or near the end of the period 

 when stumpage often brought its true value are really in a serious 

 plight. Carrying charges and interest have mounted steadily up- 

 ward each year, and for 10 years past the price of lumber has 

 steadily declined, while stumpage has remained stationary. 



Such a condition as outlined above, if maintained, must soon 



