26 THE AMES FORESTER 



the recent sales were made to operators who contemplate imme- 

 diate exploitation, and hence were in a position to pay relatively 

 higher prices than those buying as an investment. 



Owners of coast timber have not realized their expectations in 

 the matter of stumpage values. Early purchasers at low prices 

 are realizing a fair rate of interest on their investments, but 

 probably not greater than that obtained for money invested in 

 other property involving much less risk of destruction. The 

 profit, if any, will come through closer estimates of the timber 

 showing heavier stands. Later^purchasers paid higher stumpage 

 prices on much closer estimates than were originally made. They 

 cannot hope for a great increase in volume in the years to come, 

 but must base their expectations of profits almost entirely upon 

 the rise in stumpage values. As stated a'bove, standing timber 

 has not risen in value in ten years ; in fact, it has actually declined. 

 The prospects of increased stumpage values in the near future are 

 not especially bright. Large exports to European countries and 

 the extensive building of wooden ships, as now contemplated, may 

 change the situation and bring about better stumpage conditions. 



Except for species having highly specialized uses, the values of 

 western stumpage will remain stationary or at least will rise only 

 slowly for some time to come. The increased demand for wood 

 after the great war will no doubt stiffen prices somewhat, but 

 probably not permanently. There are many factors which tend 

 to verify the above statement. Probably the most important one 

 is the fact that many operators and investors own more stumpage 

 than they can cut in a reasonable length of time. In order to 

 protect their investments they must increase their outputs by 

 building additional mills, or sell a portion of the stumpage to other 

 operators. In either case more lumber is produced, and over- 

 production results. Overproduction means increased competition, 

 which in turn means lower prices for the manufactured product. 

 Since the value of standing timber depends directly upon the 

 selling prices of lumber, stumpage also declines. 



Another factor which will have a decided influence on western 

 stumpage values for many years, is the fact that there still remains 

 in the east great producing forests much nearer the large centers 

 of consumption than is the coast timber. The Great Lake States 

 forests are rapidly becoming exhausted and the southern mills 

 have reached the peak in their production, hence competition with 

 lumber from these regions will be less keen in the future and 

 prices of western products will gradually rise. 



It is doubtful, however, if the increase in prices due to the cut- 

 ting out of the eastern forests will keep pace with the increased 

 cost of production. Taxes on timber land have increased tre- 

 mendously in every western state during the past decade. Pro- 

 tection costs are considerable and are mounting higher each year. 

 Logging and milling costs have advanced materially in every 



