THE CENTURY'S PROGRESS IN METEOROLOGY 



called predictions or forecasts are essentially predica- 

 tions, gaining locally the effect of predictions because 

 the telegraph outstrips the wind. 



At only one place on the globe has it been possible as 

 yet for the meteorologist to make long-time forecasts 

 meriting the title of predictions. This is in the middle 

 Ganges Valley of northern India. In this country the 

 climatic conditions are largely dependent upon the peri- 

 odical winds called monsoons, which blow steadily land- 

 ward from April to October, and seaward from October 

 to April. The summer monsoons bring the all-essential 

 rains ; if they are delayed or restricted in extent, there 

 will be drought and consequent famine. And such re- 

 striction of the monsoon is likely to result when there 

 has been an unusually deep or very late snowfall on the 

 Himalayas, because of the lowering of spring tempera- 

 ture by the melting snow. Thus here it is possible, by 

 observing the snowfall in the mountains, to predict with 

 some measure of success the average rainfall of the fol- 

 lowing summer. The drought of 1896, with the conse- 

 quent famine and plague that devastated India last win- 

 ter, was thus predicted some months in advance. 



This is the greatest present triumph of practical me- 

 teorology. Nothing like it is yet possible anywhere in 

 temperate zones. But no one can say what may not be 

 possible in times to come, when the data now being 

 gathered all over the world shall at last be co-ordinated, 

 classified, and made the basis of broad inductions. Me- 

 teorology is pre-eminently a science of the future. 



