51 PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. [aNNO 1756. 



the fencible men ; and that their increase or decrease will always be in that pro- 

 portion. And therefore, if in England the annual increase of the people does 

 not exceed 18000, as he had before proved from the proportion of births and 

 burials, and the whole number being 6 millions, the annual increase of the fen- 

 cible men will not be above 4500. But in Scotland and Ireland this increase 

 ' may be reasonably supposed to be more, in proportion as there are more mar- 

 riages than in England. And therefore, to avoid any uncertainty in calculation, 

 we will suppose the annual increase in those countries, to be double in propor- 

 tion. That is, as we have from observation, assumed the births to be to the 

 burials at 112 to 100 at an average through England, we will now allow them 

 in Scotland and Ireland to be as 124 to 100 ; where the difference, which is the 

 increase, is double to the other, and by which the whole people would be 

 doubled in about 114 years ; which is surely as much as can be supposed. And 

 then, by the method that has been shown in his last letter, if the people in both 

 countries do not exceed 2,500,000, the annual increase will be found to be 

 15,000, and that of the fencib e men will be 3750. 



From the account given in the Philosophical Transactions, N° 261, the num- 

 ber of people in Ireland, in the year 1696, did not appear to be more than 

 1,034,000; since which time he thinks there has been little increase; and in 

 Scotland they are supposed to be less than 1,500,000; and so both together 

 they cannot be reckoned at more than 2,500,000 : and therefore the annual in- 

 crease of the fencible men cannot possibly be more than 3750, in both countries; 

 which with those in England will be 8250, for the annual increase in Britain 

 and Ireland, or a little above 8000 men. And no reasonable computation can 

 make them more. The number then 8250 may be considered, at the utmost, 

 as the yearly increase of the fencible men ; from which all our public losses in 

 our ordinary commerce at sea, and in our wars by land and sea, and by our co- 

 lonies, are to be deducted. And it is plain, if in all these ways our losses are 

 annually equal to about 8000 men, there can be no increase at all of our fen - 

 cible men ; and consequently no increase of our people, which must always be 

 in proportion to them ; but' if our losses' are more, we must be in a decreas- 

 ing state. 



To make a just and moderate estimate of our losses, it will be proper that we 

 take 50 or 60 years at an average, to avoid any uncertainty. And if we begin 

 at the year 1 69O, which is 66 years ago, we shall find, that during that time, in 

 our commerce at sea, and in our wars by land and sea, we cannot have lost less 

 than 450,000 men. To show this, it may be observed that in all bodies or 

 armies of fencible men, which consist generally of those between 18 and 56 

 years of age, there dies annually about one in 54, by the natural decrease of 

 life, as appears from Dr. Halley's table. And therefore, if there are 80000 sea- 



