VOL. XLIX.] I'HILOSOPHICAL THANSACTIONS. 53 



men or more, as is said in Britain and Ireland, the natural decrease, which is 

 not here to be considered, will be about 1480 or 1500 annually. But the num- 

 ber m.ust be much greater that is lost, by the various contingencies of the sea, 

 by wreck, scurvy, and the inclemency of different climates, &c. for fewer can- 

 not be supposed to be destroyed by such incidents, than the double of those 

 that may be by natural mortality. He thinks there must be more ; for if a ship 

 goes a voyage for a year with 100 men on board, and returns only with the loss 

 of half a dozen, she is reckoned to have made a healthy voyage, though the loss 

 is above 3 times what might be expected from natural decrease ; that is, though 

 the loss by the sea only may be considered as double tl^e other. And it often 

 happens, that by sickness there will be much more than^this, besides all the other 

 hazards of the sea. Our ships of war in long cruising have generally a greater 

 consumption of their people : so that our losses by sea are rather undervalued, 

 when they are estimated to be the double of what is from the natural decrements 

 of life. And, if this be allowed, the loss by the various contingencies of the sea 

 will be more than 3000 annually, over and above the number that might die by 

 natural casualties if they were at home ; and in 66 years it must be 198,000. 



And as to our losses by war at land and sea, of our own people, they are 

 commonly reckoned to be 300,000, in all the three French wars, since 169O: 

 but if we abate 50,000 from that number, that we may reason with more safety, 

 they cannot be less than 250,000 ; for in all those wars, that taken together 

 were about 20 years, there must be more than 10,000 lost yearly by land and 

 sea. And therefore, by our commerce and wars, from that time mentioned, we 

 have at least lost about 448,000, or 6800 annually. In which are included 

 those who died by fatigue, and other hardships, as well as those in actual en- 

 gagements. 



And if we add to this, the number that is constantly and secretly drawn from 

 Ireland, for foreign military service and on the account of religion ; and likewise 

 those taken from Scotland, for our regiments in the Dutch service ; all which 

 cannot be less than 500 yearly, though some have thought it to be double this, 

 we shall then appear to have lost 7300 annually, since the year 1 6go. To which 

 if we put the loss of those who go from hence to our colonies, and other set- 

 tlements, particularly to Jamaica and the East Indies ; and, last of all, the 

 number we have lost by the use of spirituous liquors ; it will be plain, that our 

 whole loss cannot be less, but more than 8250 annually ; which is at most the 

 yearly increase of our fencible men : and therefore that there has been no increase 

 at all of our people these last 66 years ; but rather perhaps a decrease, though it 

 cannot be ascertained with any precision. 



Now if this can be proved, as he imagines it has, that there is no increase of 

 our people in Britain and Ireland, because of our losses, we may make this un- 



