.Inly. 1926] Apple Ixdustry ix Xew Hampshire 37 



young plantings will be lost owing to neglect, inroads by game, unfav- 

 orable weather conditions, or because of lack of judicious selection of 

 the land upon which they are to be planted or the varieties used. It 

 has been assumed that 15 per cent of an3^ group of trees listed as under 

 5 j-cars of age will be lost by the time that these trees are 10; that 10 

 l)er cent of any group between 5 and 10 will be lost before they are 5 

 years older; and similarly 5 per cent of the 15-j-ear-old group, and two 

 ])er cent of the 20-year-old trees. It has also been assumed that two- 

 thirds of all the trees now planted as fillers will be removed bj^ 1940. 



The greatest question in making an estimate of this sort is as to 

 tliose trees recorded in the survey as over 30 \-ears of age. This is of 

 major importance in our state cliiefly because there are 76,000 Baldwin 

 trees more than 30 years of age. How long these trees will last de- 

 pends mainly upon the present age of the trees and the care which 

 they are going to receive. The care which they receive may in turn 

 depend largely upon the condition of the apple market during the 

 next 10 or 15 j'ears. There is a possibility for wide differences of 

 opinion as to the rate at which these trees will die off. 



Present indications are that New Hampshire growers are fairly well 

 satisfied with present returns on their Baldwin apples, and it seems 

 doubtful if at present an.y other crop can be grown to as good an ad- 

 \antage. It appears to the writers that there is no reason to believe 

 these trees will suffer from more neglect in the immediate future than 

 has been their lot in the past. It has, therefore, been assumed that 20 per 

 cent of these trees will die off during each of the next 5-j'ear periods, in other 

 words that thej' will be half gone b\' 1940, and that the last stragglers 

 Mill disappear about 15 j-ears later. Since we ha\'e manj' thrifty or- 

 chards 50 years of age and it is possible to point out at least several 

 in which the trees are nearlj- 100 years of age, this basis of estimate 

 appears to be fairl.y well substantiated. 



After determining the approximate number of trees of each age for 

 the three periods, production has been estimated on the basis of pres- 

 ent yields allowing for increased bearing surface as the trees grow 

 older. The data are presented in a Table on page 2. If the estimates have not 

 been made on too optimistic a basis, it is evident that fruit production 

 in these important varieties will increase materially in the next 15 

 years. The greatest increase on the percentage basis is in the Delicious 

 \-ariety in which we ma.v anticipate crops 20 to 22 times as large as 

 those now harvested. However, the total volume will not be large, be- 

 cause at present the crops are exceedingl}' small. In the volume of 

 production the greatest increase is to be expected in the Baldwin var- 

 ieties. In 1940 a crop of apparently 80,000 barrels larger than that 

 harvested in 1924 ma}' be expected. Crops of Wealthy apparentlj^ will 

 increase up to practically two-thirds the size of our present crops of 



Mcintosh. There would appear to be greater question as to the feas- 

 ibility of marketing this supply of apples than of any other variety in 

 the list. Some Wealthies may be top-grafted within the next decade 



