SUN^POT, STORAf, AND FAMINE. 39 



Herschel thought might be discovered, have somewhat over- 

 looked the fact that we must not hunt down such a cycle 

 per fas et nefas. "Surely in meteorology as in astronomy," 

 Mr. Lockyer writes, for instance, " the thing to hunt down 

 is a cycle, and if that is not to be found in the temperate 

 zone, then go to the frigid zones or the torrid zone to look 

 for it ; and if found, then above all things and in whatever 

 manner, lay hold of, study, and read it, and see what it 

 means." There can be no doubt that this is the way to find 

 a cycle, or at least to find what looks like a cycle, but the 

 worth of a cycle found in this way will be very questionable.* 



I would not have it understood, however, that I consider 

 all the cycles now to be referred to as unreal, or even that 

 the supposed connection between them and the solar cycle 

 has no existence. I only note that there are thousands, if 

 not tens of thousands, of relations among which cycles may 

 be looked for, and that there are perhaps twenty or thirty 

 cases in which some sort of cyclic association between certain 

 meteorological relations and the period of the solar spots 

 presents itself. According to the recognized laws of pro- 

 bability, some at least amongst these cases must be regarded 

 as accidental. Some, however, may still remain which are 

 not accidental. 



Among the earliest published instances may be mentioned 

 Mr. Baxendell's recognition of the fact that during a certain 

 series of years, about thirty, I think, the amount of rainfall 

 at Oxford was greater under west and south-west winds than 

 under south and south-east winds when sun-spots were most 

 numerous, whereas the reverse held in years when there were 

 no spots or few. Examining the meteorological records of 



* In 1860, a year of maximum sun-spot frequency, Cambridge won 

 the University boat-race ; the year 1865, of minimum sun-spot frequency, 

 marked the middle of a long array of Oxford victories ; 1872, the next 

 maximum, marked the middle of a Cambridge series of victories. May 

 we not anticipate that in 1878, the year of minimum spot frequency, 

 Oxford will win? [This prediction made in autumn, 1877, was fulfilled.] 

 I doubt not similar evidence might be obtained about cricket 



