SUN-SPOT, STORM, AND FAMINE. 47 



possible. If we had a hundred eleven-yearly cycles, and 

 took the averages of wrecks for the four years of minimum 

 solar maculation, the four intermediate years, and the three 

 years of maximum maculation, we might rely with consider- 

 able confidence on the result, because accidental peculiarities 

 one way or the other could be eliminated. But in two 

 cycles only, such peculiarities may entirely mask any cyclic 

 relation really existing, and appear to indicate a relation 

 which has no real existence. If the percentages had been 

 given for each year, the effect of such peculiarities would 

 doubtless still remain, and the final result would not be more 

 trustworthy than before; but we should have a chance of 

 deciding whether such peculiarities really exist or not, 

 and also of determining what their nature may be. As an 

 instance in point, let me cite a case where, having only the 

 results of a single cycle, we can so arrange them as to appear 

 to indicate a cyclic association between sun-spots and rain- 

 fall, while, when we give them year by year, such an associa- 

 tion is discredited, to say the least 



The total rainfall at Port Louis, between the years 1855 

 and 1868 inclusive, is as follows : 



Rainfall. Condition of Sun. 



In 1855 ... 42*665 inches ... Sun-spot minimum. 



1856 ... 46-230 



1857 ... 43-445 



1858 ... 35-506 



1859 ... 56-875 



1860 ... 45-166 ... Sun-spot maximum. 



1861 ... 68-733 



1862 ... 28-397 



1863 ... 33-420 



1864 ... 24-147 



1865 ... 44-730 



1866 ... 20-571 ... Sun-spot minimum. 



1867 ... 35-970 



1868 ... 64-180 



I think no one, looking at these numbers as they stand, 

 can recognize any evidence of a cyclic tendency. If we 

 represent the rainall by ordinates we get the accompanying 



