SUN-SPOT, STORM, AND FAMINE. 49 



May it not be that, underlying the broad results presented 

 by Mr. Jeula, there are similar irregularities? 



When we consider that the loss of ships depends, not only 

 on a cause so irregularly variable (to all seeming) as wind- 

 storms, but also on other matters liable to constant change, 

 as the variations in the state of trade, the occurrence of wars 

 and rumours of wars, special events, such as international 

 exhibitions, and so forth, we perceive that an even wider 

 range of survey is required to remove the effects of accidental 

 peculiarities in their case, than in the case of rainfall, 

 cyclones, or the like. I cannot but think, for instance, that 

 the total number of ships lost in divers ways during the 

 American war, and especially in its earlier years (correspond- 

 ing with two of the three maximum years of sun-spots) may 

 have been greater, not merely absolutely but relatively, than 

 in other years. I think it conceivable, again, that during 

 the depression following the great commercial panic of 1866 

 (occurring at a time of minimum solar maculation, as already 

 noticed) the loss of ships may have been to some degree 

 reduced, relatively as well as absolutely. We know that 

 when trade is unusually active many ships have sailed, and 

 perhaps may still be allowed to sail (despite Mr. Plimsoll's 

 endeavours), which should have been broken up; whereas 

 in times of trade depression the ships actually afloat are 

 likely to be, on the average, of a better class. So also, when, 

 for some special reason, passenger traffic at sea is abnormally 

 increased. I merely mention these as illustrative cases of 

 causes not (probably) dependent on sun-spots, which may 

 (not improbably) have affected the results examined by Mr. 

 Jeula. I think it possible that those results, if presented for 

 each year, would have indicated the operation of such 

 causes, naturally masked when sets of four years, four years, 

 and three years are taken instead of single years. 



I imagine that considerations such as these will have to 

 be taken into account and disposed of before it will be 

 unhesitatingly admitted that sun-spots have any great effect 

 in increasing the number of shipwrecks. 



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